Oregon State Women's Basketball: Taking a Look at North Carolina

Oregon State will travel to Chapel Hill for the first round in this year's NCAA Tournament, taking on a North Carolina team that just reached the semifinals of the ACC Tournament. This year's Tar Heels have struggled with injuries, but they may be peaking at the exact right moment for a deep run in the NCAA Tournament. Here's what the Beavers will be facing on Saturday.

The Tar Heels have three scorers averaging double digits per game; Forward/Center Maria Gakdeng, Guard Lexi Donarski and Guard/Forward Alyssa Ustby. Ustby is going to be the most interesting player to watch in Saturday's game. She has been a rock for the Tar Heels for the past 5 seasons, being named to several All-ACC Teams in the process.

Ustby had been having another great season, but in late February she suffered a lower body injury that kept her out through the end of the Tar Heels' regular season. She finally returned in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals and helped North Carolina take out Florida State, but against NC State in the semifinals she was more limited, scoring only 6 points.

If Ustby is 100% for Saturday's game, and North Carolina has confirmed she will be, she adds tremendous dimension to the Tar Heels game. Before her injury she was the team's top scorer, equally capable of setting up at the perimeter or driving to the rim. She's also one of team's best rebounders and leads the Tar Heels in assists despite missing games. When Ustby is on, she's the engine that drives the team.

Ustby isn't the only Tar Heel recovering from injury. Sophomore guard Reniya Kelly was also injured in late February, and also has recently returned to the lineup. Kelly is one of the best three point shooters on the team, and was a key part of the Tar Heels upset of NC State in the regular season when she was 5 for 9 from beyond the arc.

With Ustby and Kelly out UNC was much less flexible. so it's going to be on the Beavers to attack that flexibility if they want to pull off the upset. Here are three key factors if the Beavers hope to win.

1. Make Them Work for the Three

I would say take away the three altogether, but that's going to be difficult against North Carolina. They're not an elite three shooting team, but they have a lot of options. North Carolina has a great three point shooter in Lexi Donarski and a couple very good ones in Reniya Kelly and All ACC Freshman Lanie Grant. Even beyond those three, North Carolina has several players quite capable of being consistent from range, so defending the perimeter is going to be difficult.

If the Beavers can't, they'll struggle to keep up. Despite improvements in recent games, Oregon State has struggled with the three from most of this season. If North Carolina has free reign from range they'll build an early lead that Oregon State will struggle to come back from, so the Beavers need to crack down and force the game into the interior.

2. Win the Key

This is going to be another difficult task. If the Beavers can drive the game into the paint, it's going to put a lot of pressure on Kelsey Rees and Sela Heide to contend for rebounds with Ustby, one of the ACC's best rebounders. They're going to have to do though, because if they can't keep pace in the rebounding game the Tar Heels are going to take advantage. Ustby picking up an offensive rebound and kicking the ball out to one of UNC's many three point shooters is one way the Tar Heels pick up a lot of points. The Beavers have to shut that down.

3. Don't Let a Physical Game Be a Foul Heavy Game

The way Oregon State makes this game competitive is by slowing down the pace and forcing an interior battle. That means the game could turn very physical, but North Carolina can weather a foul heavy game better than the Beavers can. The Tar Heels are very deep, and as the fourth quarter develops Oregon State could get into a lot of trouble if their top players are limited, especially players like Heide and Rees who will be fighting for rebounds.

It's going to be a tough one for the Beavers. Oregon State hasn't beaten a team as good as North Carolina yet this season. The only time they've played a team in the same league a the Tar Heels was Uconn early in the season, and OSU lost that one by nearly 20 points. It's going to be an extremely tough challenge, but the Beavers have already pulled off some very unexpected things this season. We'll have to wait and see on Saturday.