How Did We Get Here?
Tuesday's unveiling of the first College Football Playoff rankings included Indiana and Northwestern, two bright stories of this wild Big Ten season.
Meanwhile, Penn State and Michigan are playing each other with losing records for the first time in their 24-game history.
How did we get here? Ahead of their noon meeting Saturday at Michigan Stadium, we addressed some of the factors with Brandon Brown, publisher of SI.com's Michigan site, Wolverine Digest.
Need some therapy? Read on.
So, how did your team get here?
Penn State: The Lions invested so much into this season, from summer voluntary workouts to the fall installation of their new offense, that the Week 1 overtime loss to Indiana likely took a larger mental toll than the team acknowledged. Season-ending injuries (to tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Noah Cain), a high-profile opt-out (linebacker Micah Parsons) and a career-ending medical decision (running back Journey Brown) have robbed Penn State of some of its best players. And head coach James Franklin openly has discussed his struggle coaching without his family at home (they’re living elsewhere for medical reasons). The whole swirl, certainly prodded by inconsistent play at all levels, has Penn State off to its worst start in school history. It’s astonishing that Penn State began the season needing two victories to join Michigan in the exclusive 900-win club and still doesn’t have them.
Michigan: Man, if I had an answer to that question I’d be the smartest person in Ann Arbor. The coaches picked Joe Milton to be the starting quarterback, and that was wrong. They spread their running backs too thin for four weeks and got no production from the group, and that was wrong. And the defense is letting offenses run through them like a sieve, still, and that’s still wrong. The team is just struggling in a lot of ways. Yes, they are coming off a win, but it was in triple overtime against Rutgers, for crying out loud. I have no idea exactly what the problem is, and no one else seems to either.
What are the primary issues facing your team?
Penn State: Blocking, tackling and quarterback play. Penn State isn’t very good at any of them. The offense doesn’t have a starting quarterback (more on that later), is down to its fifth- and sixth-string running backs and has made the QB draw its identity. The defense is shaky up the middle at all three levels, isn’t getting consistent linebacker play and ranks last in the Big Ten in red-zone stops. Every opponent has led Penn State by double-digits at halftime. And the Lions are minus-9 in turnover margin after finishing the 2019 season at plus-8.
Michigan: I touched on some of the issues in the first answer, but it’s really been about the defense. Teams have figured out coordinator Don Brown. He used to trot top units out there, but now offenses are doing whatever they want against Michigan’s D and setting new highs week in and week out. The Michigan defense has given up an average of 38.7 points and 463.7 yards per game in their last seven contests. That’s definitely the primary issue.
What's the situation at quarterback?
Penn State: Uncertain. Penn State has turned over the ball 13 times, all of which have been attributed to the quarterbacks. Initial starter Sean Clifford had eight turnovers (including six interceptions and two sack-fumbles returned for touchdowns) before being replaced by Will Levis. Starting last week against Iowa, Levis fumbled twice, both of which the Hawkeyes turned into touchdowns, before Clifford returned. Clifford threw touchdown passes on his first two attempts, then threw two more interceptions, including a pick-6. Opponents have scored 51 points off those turnovers. Who starts Saturday is anyone’s guess, but it’s likely both will end up playing.
Michigan: Joe Milton was benched two weeks in a row, allowing Cade McNamara to come in and perform well, especially last week against Rutgers. He came in about halfway through the second quarter and finished 27-of-36 for 260 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions and also rushed for a score. As usual, Jim Harbaugh hasn’t named a starter, but if it’s not McNamara, the city of Ann Arbor might implode on Saturday.
How much longer will the head coach last?
Penn State: James Franklin will be Penn State’s head coach in 2021, as long as he wants the job. His buyout is $32 million, which certainly can be negotiated down, but still looms over an athletic department that projects a $75 million shortfall in its 2021 budget and has to hire a men’s basketball coach. Franklin also has accumulated enough capital from going 42-11, with a Big Ten title and two New Year’s 6 bowl wins, over the past four seasons to write off 2020 as an outlier.
Michigan: This really is the million-dollar question. Currently, Harbaugh’s contract is up after next season, and talks of an extension seem to be halted amid the pandemic and a mostly-down season. After the three bad losses in a row, just about everyone seemed done with him. The triple-overtime win against Rutgers didn’t help much, if at all, but it’s hard to beat a coach down after a win, even if it’s not a very impressive one. There have been some rumblings about this being Harbaugh’s last year in Ann Arbor, but nothing concrete. He’s now 3-3 against Michigan State, 0-5 against Ohio State, which everyone knows will be 0-6, and has zero wins as an underdog. It feels like his time is just about up at U-M, but we’ve also heard that athletic director Warde Manuel will never fire him. It could be a tumultuous offseason regardless of how the on-field campaign plays out.
Is there any hope for the future?
Penn State: Receiver Jahan Dotson has been exceptional, with six touchdowns and a 17 yards-per-catch average. Best known for making every reliable catch, Dotson has made some acrobatic grabs this year as well. Further, defensive ends Shaka Toney and Jayson Oweh are the highest-impact players on defense. Though he doesn’t have a sack, Oweh delivers enough pressure that requires defensive scheming. That said, it’s possible all three leave for the NFL after this season. What Penn State needs now, though, is a win or two, a bit of positive thinking entering the offseason and then a functioning set of spring drills to hit the reset switch. There's still a roster of young talent that needs some normalcy again.
Michigan: Define hope. Is Harbaugh ever going to get Michigan over the Ohio State hump, play for a Big Ten title and get into the College Football Playoff? I personally don’t think so, but a lot of people think Harbaugh is the best U-M can do and are content with the current results and state of the program. Based on this year, Harbaugh’s now unable to beat mediocre and inferior opponents as well, so hope seems just about lost.
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