Is 2020 the Year Penn State Makes the CFP?

In early August, James Franklin surveyed his seventh Penn State football roster and thought, "We've got a good-looking team." Little wonder that he was "extremely frustrated" with the Big Ten's initial decision to postpone the 2020 football season.

Now, Franklin, the Lions and the Big Ten get their second chances. The conference is about to embark on its eight-game race to Championship Week, hoping to beat the COVID-19 pandemic there. And Penn State, ranked No. 8 in the AP Top 25, looks different without its two Cotton Bowl MVPs, Micah Parsons and Journey Brown.

So what's the outlook for the Nittany Lions this season? Let's sift through the last two months to find the top storylines and predictions for Penn State in 2020.

Noah Cain could lead the Big Ten in rushing

Without Journey Brown, Penn State's offense will miss its top game-breaker. Brown already had the speed to run past defenses, but last year he developed the power to plow through them, something he showcased in the Cotton Bowl. His loss will be significant.

That said, Noah Cain had Brown's breakout-star spot before being injured in his first start against Michigan State. Cain compiled back-to-back 100-yard games and bulldozed Purdue on a late scoring drive that properly marked his Big Ten introduction.

Cain labored with an injury during the season's second half, when Brown began to flourish. He re-emerged at the Cotton Bowl, rushing for 92 yards and two touchdowns as Brown's complementary back.

The Big Ten rushing race is up for grabs, though Ohio State transfer Trey Sermon certainly will stake his case. But this year, without a non-conference schedule to feel its way, Penn State's offense likely will lean on a feature back rather than the 2019 rotation.

A healthy Cain, though he doesn't have Brown's breakaway potential, could average 5 yards per carry and churn through defenses. If the offensive line is as good as the Lions claim, Cain will explode this season.

The receivers will be better than expected

Untested doesn't mean unknown, and Penn State likes what it has at wide receiver. Certainly, the group needs to prove itself, and particularly has to develop an alpha in KJ Hamler's wake, but quarterback Sean Clifford will have more options than to look for tight end Pat Freiermuth on every play.

Parker Washington is the player to watch. Though he arrived only this summer, Washington worked himself atop the depth chart and would become the first true freshman receiver to start for Penn State since Brandon Polk in 2015. Franklin has noted Washington's "elite ball skills." So if his routes are as accomplished, Washington will catch a lot of passes.

Fellow freshman KeAndre Lambert-Smith grabbed similar preseason attention, giving the Lions their most promising group of young receivers since the Derrick Williams/Justin King/Jordan Norwood/Deon Butler class of 2005. And veterans Jahan Dotson and Cam Sullivan-Brown are not to be overlooked. Dotson spent the offseason bettering his post-catch skills, and Sullivan-Brown was an underrated receiver before being injured last season.

The big question mark will be Daniel George, a 6-2 redshirt sophomore who needs to deliver on his recruiting promise. George is a strong receiver (he benched 335 pounds and squatted 540 during winter workouts) and has to translate that into becoming a physical presence.

The linebackers will need some time

When announcing Parsons' decision not to return, Franklin lauded the linebackers as a position of strength, considering how well Penn State has recruited there recently. No question: Brandon Smith is a star in the making, Curtis Jacobs is a young linebacker to watch and Jesse Luketa said the unit's mission is to "go out there and earn our respect."

They'll have to do it quickly, considering the aggressive passing offenses Penn State faces the first two weeks in Indiana and Ohio State. Let's not underestimate it: Penn State has to replace three starting linebackers, including the best player its roster has seen since Saquon Barkley.

A non-conference schedule would have given the linebackers time to set their feet and correct their mistakes. Instead, they'll do that against Indiana's skilled passing game and Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields. No easy task.

This position will make or break Penn State's first two games.

What's more likely: Penn State starts the season 2-0 or 0-2?

The Lions' Big Ten title, and College Football Playoff, hopes could end in the season's first eight days. That's a chilling thought.

An opening-day road game, against a passing team that could exploit Penn State's 2019 weakness in big-play defense, is nerve-fraying. Particularly if the offense looks slow, uncomfortable or mistake-prone in its debut.

Meanwhile, the Ohio State game, from this distance, is an unfavorable matchup, even before considering that Penn State will play without two of its top players and the home-field advantage Urban Meyer said was worth 10 points.

So on a betting sheet, 0-2 likely would get better odds than 2-0.

Considering that, is Penn State a CFP contender?

Absolutely. Should the Lions go 8-1, trading blows with Ohio State in a prime-time epic and winning their Championship Week matchup, they'll merit significant consideration in a chaotic season.

The Ohio State game is early enough to give Penn State a chance to rebound. And the schedule is friendly enough thereafter (until a Nov. 28 visit to Michigan) to allow for a climb back into contention.

The prediction

Clifford should thrive in Kirk Ciarrocca's offense, provided he's able to calm his occasional adrenaline surges, and the offensive line should be Franklin's best at Penn State. Meanwhile, the secondary will start four future NFL draft picks, and defensive end Jayson Oweh is a 10-sack candidate.

This could be a really good team, perhaps even a great one with a few breaks. But it's just not at Ohio State's level yet, which is where the bar is set now.

Penn State finishes 7-2, accounting for one unpredictable loss in the most unpredictable season.

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