Rutgers Star Ace Bailey's Turnover Issues Are Well Overblown

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers may be gearing up for the 2025 NBA Finals right now, but the rest of the association is knee-deep in film, scouting reports, and any other analyses available on the incoming draft class. Consensus has dubbed Duke's Cooper Flagg as the slam-dunk number one pick, and all indications are that the Dallas Mavericks will take the obvious choice with the first selection later this month.

After Flagg, Rutgers' Dylan Harper is widely seen as the next best available talent. With the San Antonio Spurs already rostering De'Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle, however, even the second pick could be up in the air this year. After those two, the big board gets extremely shaky. While a massive chunk of analysts and fans would have fellow Scarlet Knight Airious "Ace" Bailey third, there are plenty of others who have Texas's Tre Johnson, Baylor's VJ Edgecombe, and other prospects ahead of him in their rankings.

The 6'8" forward possesses enviable physical gifts, towering potential on both sides of the ball, and the production necessary to make him a top pick in his freshman year with Rutgers. However, he had one glaring weakness with the Scarlet Knights that has his detractors declaring him a potential bust in the NBA: his turnovers.

This past season, Bailey racked up 61 turnovers to just 38 assists. Between those numbers and his highlights that consistently show him taking and making tough shots, a narrative has been spun that Bailey either can't pass or refuses to, preferring instead to hunt contested looks. It's been suggested that he can't play winning basketball, or, even worse, doesn't care to.

That's not the case, however. I was able to personally track 46 of his 61 turnovers from this past season (linked here for transparency), and the film doesn't agree that he's a selfish basketball player who doesn't know how to pass or play team basketball.

His turnovers weren't nearly as damning as his reputation among his critics would suggest. Of the 46 turnovers I was able to track, 11 of them were bad passes, technically unsound dishes that either sailed out of bounds or into the hands of a defender. Five of them were poor reads, like against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, when he threw a turnover expecting a roll from his teammate that never came and another trying to thread the needle on a bounce pass that caromed off a defender's leg. Three were decent passes, catchable balls that his teammates failed to secure. Two of them were good passes that were fumbled by his fellow Scarlet Knights. Five others were incidentals, including stepping out of bounds on a drive and getting pickpocketed by a blindside double-team. The last 10 I tracked came as a result of him losing his handle.

Unless the remaining 15 I was unable to find were all just poor passes, it's clear that Bailey's turnovers weren't because he's technically deficient, selfish, or lacking in feel. They were sporadic and mostly a result of his being aggressive, trying to force a pass into a closing window or losing the ball on a gather attacking in a crowd.

Not only are his turnovers overstated, but his assist numbers undersell his passing talent, too. Both he and his teammate Dylan Harper have defended his basketball IQ and approach to the game, and the tape backs up their claims. He might not have totaled a bunch of assists on the stat sheet, but he was a willing connective passer and had plenty of great dishes that weren't converted by his open teammates.

He looked comfortable running screen actions, consistently found the open man, and even showed an ability to read the floor and make anticipatory finds. He can also make a variety of different passes: skips across the perimeter, pocket passes into the lane, one-handed whips with both hands off the bounce, etc.

What stood out to me the most was that Bailey was never rattled under pressure. Despite consistently seeing multiple defenders in his time at Rutgers, none of the turnovers I tracked were because he panicked against a double-team. He regularly made the correct pass under duress. He often took his time to allow a lane to open up and used his pivot wisely to protect the ball and create angles.

Ace Bailey's passing might not be a primary strength for him entering the league, but he's a much more capable creator than his numbers and critics suggest. He even has the athleticism, touch, and instincts to become a dangerous floor general someday.