Despite big win, San Diego State drops in latest FPI ratings

The Aztecs drop slightly after big win against Colorado State

Oct 3, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs running back Christian Washington (23) runs the ball during the first half against the Colorado State Rams at Snapdragon Stadium. | David Frerker-Imagn Images

The San Diego State Aztecs actually dropped one ranking spot in ESPN's predictive rating system on Monday, from 84th to 85th. 

The drop came after the (4-1, 1-0 Mountain West) put on an offensive show in a 45-24 home win against Colorado State in a conference opener. After eclipsing their win total from Sean Lewis’ first season as coach, the Aztecs are preparing to make their final trip to Reno to face Nevada (1-4, 0-1).

However, SDSU’s FPI had a healthy jump, from -5.9 to -4.7.

And in a continuing good indicator for Lewis’ team, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 7.8-4.4.

Their chances of having a six-win season and hitting bowl eligibility continue to trend upward, to 96.4%. 

Oct 3, 2025; San Diego, California, USA; San Diego State Aztecs tight end Jackson Ford (15) stiff arms Colorado State Rams defensive back Jake Jarmolowich during the first half at Snapdragon Stadium. | David Frerker-Imagn Images

The Aztecs played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

With the -4.7 FPI, the Aztecs remain at sixth in the Mountain West. There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, defending league champion Boise State at 4.7 and UNLV at 1.3.

Oct 4, 2025; South Bend, Indiana, USA; Boise State Broncos quarterback Maddux Madsen (4) celebrates as he runs in a touchdown against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish during the first half at Notre Dame Stadium. | Michael Caterina-Imagn Images

San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West is 4%. SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.

Nevada’s FPI is -15.1 and its ranking actually went up five spots to 123 after a three-point loss at MW leader Fresno State. 

What’s next

The Aztecs and Wolf Pack face off at Mackay Stadium at 7:30 p.m. PT Saturday.