San Diego State vs. Colorado State picks, predictions for college football Week 6 game

Aztecs and Rams square off in final Mountain West opener

Colorado State's head coach Jay Norvell calls a play from the sideline against Washington State at Canvas Stadium in Fort Collins, Colo., on Sept. 27, 2025. | Logan Newell/The Coloradoan / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

San Diego State opens its final season in the Mountain West Conference when it hosts Colorado State on Friday night at Snapdragon Stadium. The last time the Aztecs played at home, they stunned California 34-0. This week, they’re coming off a 6-3 win at Northern Illinois.

At 3-1, the Aztecs have matched their win total from last fall, when they lost their last six games and finished 3-9 in Sean Lewis’ first season as head coach. They want to keep the momentum going when they face a Colorado State team that tumbled to 1-3 after being routed at home by Washington State.

San Diego State also lost big to Washington State in Week 2 at Pullman, allowing the Cougars to score 29 straight points in a 36-13 blowout. 

The Aztecs and Rams will join fellow MW teams Boise State, Fresno State and Utah State in moving to the Pac-12 next year, where they’ll join holdovers Wazzu and Oregon State, and fellow newcomers Texas State in football and basketball and Gonzaga in basketball only.

Several outlets and media personnel have made their picks for the Week 6 matchup at Snapdragon Stadium. San Diego State is a 5.5-point favorite and the over/under is 40.5 points, according to FanDuel.

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs quarterback Jayden Denegal (4) looks to the sideline for a play against the Washington State Cougars. | James Snook-Imagn Images

Here's a look at how a few prognosticators foresee the Rams-Aztecs matchup playing out.

Bleacher Report: San Diego State 19, CSU 13

Bleacher Report's David Kenyon is all aboard with the Aztecs for the second straight week. He’s got them covering the spread to improve to 4-1.

Dimers.com: San Diego State 24, CSU 19

After simulating the outcome of the Aztecs-Huskies matchup more than 10,000 times, Dimers.com’s model gives San Diego State a 66% win probability on the moneyline but just a 50% win probability against the spread.

ESPN SP+: San Diego State 30, CSU 15

Bill Connelly's SP+ model, a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measurement of college football efficiency, gives the Aztecs an 82% chance of beating the Rams at home. This is the second straight win that Connelly's metrics-based formulas picked the Aztecs to win.

Odds Shark: CSU 29, San Diego State 20

In an upset special, Odds Shark's computer predicts the Rams will win, cover the spread and the total will go under. It predicts the Rams to win 28.8-19.9, so we’ll interpret that to mean 29-20. Odds Shark missed last week when it picked NIU to win and cover the spread.

Sportsbook Wire: San Diego State 26, CSU 8

USA TODAY's sports betting site has San Diego State more than covering the spread and the score to go under.