San Diego State drops in ESPN’s FPI ratings

Loss at Washington State was costly in the metrics

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs edge Trey White (2) warms up before a game against the Washington State Cougars at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. | James Snook-Imagn Images

A 23-point loss at Washington State was costly to the San Diego State Aztecs in more ways than one. Besides losing big to a future Pac-12 opponent, the Aztecs dropped 12 spots in ESPN's predictive rating system, from 104th in the country to 116th.

That puts the Aztecs just one spot ahead of where they were in the initial Football Power Index in June.

Additionally, SDSU’s FPI dropped from -8.5 to -12.2, worse than its initial FPI of -11.8.

And in another big drop, the Aztecs’ projected won-loss record is now listed at 4.4-7.6, down from 5.8-6.3 last week. 

The loss was bad enough that the Aztecs’ chances of having a six-win season have dropped from 55.9% all the way down to 22%.

That doesn’t bode well for bowl eligibility, although a strong rebound could get them up to the required six wins. The Aztecs (1-1) played in 12 bowl games between 2010 and 2022, including 10 straight from 2010-2019. They missed a bowl in Brady Hoke’s final season as coach in 2023 and in Sean Lewis’ first year in 2024, when they were 3-9.

What is the FPI?

The FPI is a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance. FPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. Projected results are based on 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season. 

FPI in the Mountain West

SDSU’s -12.2 FPI dropped it from right in the middle of the Mountain West all the way down to second-from-last, just ahead of Nevada (-12.8). tied with Utah State. There are only two MW teams with a positive FPI, defending league champion Boise State at 3.2 and UNLV at 1.9.

Sep 6, 2025; Pullman, Washington, USA; San Diego State Aztecs head coach Sean Lewis looks on during a game against the Washington State Cougars in the first half at Gesa Field at Martin Stadium. | James Snook-Imagn Images

San Diego State’s chance of winning the conference title in its last season in the Mountain West fell all the way to 0.2%. SDSU, Boise State, Utah State, Fresno State and Colorado State are headed to the new-look Pac-12 starting on July 1, joining holdovers Washington State and Oregon State, as well as Texas State in football and Gonzaga in basketball.

What’s next

The Aztecs have a bye this week before hosting the California Golden Bears on Sept. 20.

The Aztecs have a lot to work on during the off week, including offensive efficiency. They struggled to move the ball and finished converting just twice on 13 third downs and only once on four fourth downs, although that one conversion was a 35-yard touchdown pass from Jayden Denegal to Jacob Bostick for the game’s first score, five minutes in. 

But the Cougars scored the next 29 points.

“We're going to test our culture here as we go,” Lewis said. “Like you guys have told me time and time again that the culture is better, the connection is better and I'm looking forward to seeing how they respond, because it's easy to be together and have a strong culture when things are running high. We get tested with a little bit of adversity here early in the season, but the group of young guys, particularly offensively, they're going to pull together from this will be better because of it.”