How NCAA's Winter Sports Eligibility Ruling Impacts Syracuse Basketball
On Wednesday, the NCAA ruled that winter sport athletes who compete in the 2020-21 season will "receive both an additional season of competition and an additional year in which to complete it." Winter sports would include basketball, which lead to some interesting scenarios for Syracuse.
Current seniors on the roster include forward Marek Dolezaj and center Bourama Sidibe. This ruling means that instead of this season being their final one in Orange, both have the option of coming back for another year and would not count towards the 2021-22 scholarship limit. That is the simplistic impact. Beyond that it gets more complicated with a couple variables.
College basketball has players who leave early to pursue their professional aspirations after every season. Syracuse has had their share of such players over the last several years, including Donte Greene, Jonny Flynn, Dion Waiters, Tyler Ennis, Tyler Lydon, Malachi Richardson, Chris McCullough, Jerami Grant, Wes Johnson, Michael Carter Williams, Tyus Battle, Oshae Brissett and Elijah Hughes. So which players leave early remain a variable that is nearly impossible to predict.
After the 2021-22 season, Buddy Boeheim and Alan Griffin would have exhausted their eligibility. Now they have the option of staying for one more year, the 2022-23 campaign. It seems more likely that Buddy is around that long than it does Griffin, who may decide to turn pro with one or two strong seasons.
This is where things get tricky. Syracuse has used its full allotment of scholarships for the 2020-21 season. They have one player committed in the 2021 class in Benny Williams. Technically, everyone can return and that would put Syracuse's scholarship total at 14 for 21-22, with two not counting towards the limit of 13.
Two players (Buddy and Griffin) would leave after that season, and put Syracuse's scholarship number at 12. That is, of course, assuming no one leaves either for the NBA or as a transfer, which seems extremely unlikely. Quincy Guerrier could be one breakout season away from testing the professional waters. If reserves such as Robert Braswell, Jesse Edwards or John Bol Ajak do not play as much as desired, do they enter the transfer portal to find a larger role?
It would be a surprise if Syracuse entered the 2022 offseason with only one scholarship available, but it certainly is a possibility. Dior Johnson is already committed to Syracuse in the 2022 recruiting cycle, and the Orange is after several other elite prospects. They include Roddy Gayle, Ty Rodgers, Donovan Clingan, Chance Westry, Zion Cruz, JJ Starling and others. Syracuse will not get all of those players, but let's go under the assumption they add three more to the 2022 class to join Johnson. Let's also assume Johnson elects to spend a year at Syracuse rather than going straight to the NBA or G-League.
In that scenario, Syracuse would add four players to the 2022-23 roster. With Buddy and Griffin leaving in the offseason, the addition of four players would put the total scholarship number at 16. In order to get back down to 13, three players would have to leave early over the next two seasons. That seems more than reasonable given the attrition that takes place in normal offseasons.
Assuming three or four leave over the next two years, and then the offseason between the 2022-23 and 2023-24 seasons had the normal attrition, the scholarship numbers should be at a pre-pandemic norm. That means it will essentially only take one or two offseasons before the extra year of eligibility does not have an impact on scholarship numbers.
