Statistical Analysis: A Tale of Two Halves
Syracuse basketball lost to Georgetown 79-75 despite holding a 10 point lead at halftime. Holding a halftime lead is not new for the Orange. Syracuse has done that in six of its 10 games. But of those six, it has lost three of those games. We took a deeper dive into the numbers to see if there were any trends. There is a trend. Syracuse basketball has a second half problem.
In Syracuse's 10 games, it has performed better in the second half only twice (Drexel and Florida State). The other eight, it performed worse. Better or worse how? Scoring margin, for one. But we also looked at Syracuse's shooting percentage as well as opponents' shooting percentage in each half. The numbers speak for themselves.
| Category | First Half | Second Half |
|---|---|---|
Syracuse Points | 38.1 | 37.0 |
Opponents' Points | 33.0 | 42.7 |
Scoring Margin | +5.1 | -5.7 |
Syracuse FG% | 43.8% | 45.0% |
Syracuse 3PT% | 39.7% | 31.3% |
Opponents' FG% | 37.6% | 47.2% |
Opponents' 3PT% | 30.5% | 45.1% |
Note: The numbers in the table above include only the second half for Indiana, not the overtime periods.
Syracuse is outscoring opponents by five points per game in the first halves of games but being outscored by nearly six points per game in second halves. The shooting percentages also support the scoring numbers. While Syracuse's overalls hooting percentage actually goes up slightly from the first to the second half, three point shooting drops significantly.
Opponents' shooting percentage differences are the biggest issue, which points directly to Syracuse's defensive performances. In the first half, teams are shooting just below average overall and from three point range against the Orange. In the second half, both numbers increase significantly. That is why teams are scoring nearly 10 points on average in the second halves of games compared to the first.
What is the answer? How does Syracuse fix this issue? Does it mean playing more of the bench to keep players fresh? Is there an adjustment that can be made defensively? A lot of questions for which I do not have the answer.
We know one thing for sure, however. This must change if Syracuse is going to turn things around this season.
