Big 12 Roundup: Conference Tournament Scenarios After Week 11

The postseason landscape is beginning to take shape as the 2024 college baseball season enters its final month. What do teams need to punch their tickets to the Big 12 Tournament?

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As we turn the calendar to May, the 2024 college baseball season rounds third and heads for home. Two postseason landscapes are beginning to take shape – the Big 12 Tournament and the NCAA Tournament. But there's still plenty of competition and a whole month of baseball to go. Let's review what teams on the fringe of the conference tournament bracket need to get in, and what could potentially keep them out.

The #22 Oklahoma Sooners (26-16, 15-6 Big 12) maintain a slim one-game lead in the Big 12 over the #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (30-14, 14-7) and West Virginia Mountaineers (26-16, 14-7). Oklahoma is the lone state with ranked Big 12 teams after Week 11.

Big 12 Tournament Scenarios

The top 10 teams in the conference lock in a berth to the Phillips 66 Big 12 Tournament. As it stands today, the three teams outside the tournament field looking in includes: the BYU Cougars (17-24, 6-18), Houston Cougars (22-22, 6-15), and the TCU Horned Frogs (26-16, 10-14). It's not impossible for BYU and Houston to make the field – they sit 4.5 and 3 games back with six and nine league games left, respectively – but given the teams' track records, it's unlikely they make a run for it.

So, that leaves the...

TCU Horned Frogs

"Letdown" might be too gentle of a word to describe TCU's 2024 season. The Horned Frogs are coming off a national semifinal finish in the College World Series and came into the season ranked fifth nationally, per D1Baseball. But dead bats and hesitant offense has led the Frogs to have to fight just to make the conference tourney.

They picked up a much-needed series win over Kansas State last weekend and finish out the year with Baylor and West Virginia in league play. Just a half-game back, TCU pretty much controls its own destiny. This weekend's series against the Bears will be a huge swing for both teams to land inside or outside the tournament field.

• Path to Big 12 Tournament: Win Baylor series, avoid sweep vs. West Virginia

What about the teams barely holding onto a conference tourney bid?

Baylor Bears

Outlined above, Baylor has a critical three-game series against TCU this coming weekend. While not a true win-and-in for either team, the scales will tip massively in favor of the series winner; getting swept would be dire for either team. Missing the Big 12 Tournament field would almost surely eliminate TCU from the NCAA Tournament while Baylor would likely need to win or finish runner-up in the conference to make the national postseason.

Should Baylor drop the series against TCU, they would have an uphill battle to re-gain footing, finishing the year out at Oklahoma and against UCF. That final series could wind up being a win-and-in situation for both the Bears and Knights.

• Path to Big 12 Tournament: Win TCU series OR win both Oklahoma and UCF series

UCF Knights

A 1-5 conference skid to end April saw UCF tumble down the Big 12 standings. Now 9-12 in the conference and 26-15 overall, the Knights are neck-and-neck with Baylor for the final tourney spot. Fortunately for UCF, two of its final three series come against Houston and Baylor.

UCF truly controls its own destiny with a chance to knock Baylor out of the tournament field.

• Path to the Big 12 Tournament: Win 2/3 final series, particularly at Baylor

Team That Impressed Me The Most

The Kansas Jayhawks (25-15, 12-9) are quietly climbing the Big 12 standings. They completed a three-game sweep of Texas Tech in Lawrence and now hold the conference's longest win streak at six games. Starting pitching continues to dominate, as Kansas hasn't allowed more than four wins during its six-game streak.

Left on the schedule are Kansas State, Houston, and Texas – all teams prone to shutting down offensively against better pitching. We've maintained our stance on the Jayhawks as a potential tournament team come June. This week, we may be seeing more Kansas projections in the Field of 64 than Kansas State or TCU, currently forecasted to both be last-four in teams.

Should KU take at least two games in the Sunflower Showdown this weekend, they'll start to get more attention. You've been notified early.

Notable Performances

Carson Benge, UTL, OKST: Nobody in the country had a better weekend than the Pokes' two-way star. Four weekend home runs and 5.0 innings on the mound earned Benge the Big 12 Player of the Week, for good reason. He only allowed one run Friday night and struck out six.

Cary Arbolida, OF, HOU: Arbolida couldn't let Benge have all the hitting fun – the senior also sent four baseballs over the fence against UT Arlington. He logged eight RBIs and also notched a double. The Cougars won two of three games, scoring 27 runs in their two wins.

Payton Tolle, LHP/Andrew Mosielo, RHP, TCU: Tolle and Mosielo combined for a shutout of Kansas State on Friday, striking out 13 Wildcats and allowing five hits. TCU desperately needed a series win and they got it, winning games 1 & 2. Tolle improved to 5-3 on the season and Mosielo picked up his first save after throwing four quality innings.

Big 12 College Baseball Standings

Rankings courtesy of D1Baseball. Records accurate as of Tuesday.

1. #22 Oklahoma Sooners (26-16, 15-6)

T2. #14 Oklahoma State Cowboys (30-14, 14-7)

T2. West Virginia Mountaineers (26-16, 14-7)

4. Texas Longhorns (27-18, 13-8)

5. Kansas Jayhawks (25-15, 12-9)

6. Cincinnati Bearcats (25-19, 11-10)

7. Texas Tech Red Raiders (29-17, 12-12)

8. Kansas State Wildcats (26-17, 10-11)

T9. UCF Knights (26-15, 9-12)

T9. Baylor Bears (19-23, 9-12)

11. TCU Horned Frogs (26-16, 10-14)

12. Houston Cougars (22-22, 6-15)

13. BYU Cougars (17-24, 6-18)

Upcoming Weekend Series

Conference Play

Kansas at Kansas State: Tointon Family Stadium (Manhattan, KS)

#22 Oklahoma at Texas Tech: Rip Griffin Park (Lubbock, TX)

#14 Oklahoma State at Texas: Disch-Falk Field (Austin, TX)

TCU at Baylor: Baylor Ballpark (Waco, TX)

UCF at Houston: Scroeder Park (Houston, TX)

West Virginia at Cincinnati: UC Baseball Stadium (Cincinnati, OH)

Non-conference Play

BYU at Miami (FL): Alex Rodriguez Park (Coral Gables, FL, Thurs-Sat)

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