A Fork In The Road: TCU Baseball Decides Postseason Fate vs. Baylor

It's truly do-or-die time. With postseason eligibility hanging in the balance, TCU visits rival Baylor for three-game weekend series.

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A series loss for the TCU Horned Frogs (26-16, 10-14 Big 12) this weekend would cement the 2024 season as unsalvageable. Currently, TCU sits on the outside looking in for the Big 12 Championship, where only the top 10 seeds make the tournament. The rival Baylor Bears (20-23, 9-12) hold the 10th spot – a berth TCU looks to take away this weekend.

The Frogs have six league games left on their schedule. Baylor has nine. UCF, who has the same Big 12 record as Baylor, also has nine conference games remaining. So, yes, theoretically TCU could lose this series and still make the Big 12 Championship, but why tempt fate to find out?

TCU at Baylor begins Friday night at 6:30 p.m. CT. Saturday's Game 2 begins at 2:00 p.m. and Sunday's Game 3 finale, at 1:00 p.m. Watch all three games on ESPN+, listen to them at 88.7 FM KTCU, or see them for yourself at Baylor Ballpark in Waco.

Fork In The Road

Should TCU tempt fate, lose this series, and miss the postseason, it'll be a clear flashpoint we can point back to as the straw that broke the camel's back for the 2024 season. An amalgamation of issues – hitting with runners in scoring position, being too selective at the plate, and occasional starting pitching woes – will be the cause of the disappointment, but this series will be the breaking point.

Every year, teams debut in the top 10 nationally and turn in mediocre or worse seasons (across all sports). But never do you want it to be your team.

Kirk Saarloos and the Frogs have a chance to salvage the season. Get in the tournament, win a couple games, and earn a berth to the NCAA Tournament and, likely, most will be forgiven. It'll still be remembered as a disappointment (barring a miracle run to Omaha), but missing the conference tournament field would be a disaster.

Sizing Up The Bears

I've said this before and I'll risk ending up on Freezing Cold Takes again, but this is a series TCU should win. Against teams ranked inside the top 50 nationally, per RPI, Baylor is a combined 6-14, including 1-8 against top 25 competition. Despite its record, TCU ranks 37th in RPI and 27th in D1Baseball's DSR ratings.

The Bears are on a five-game conference losing skid and, in that time, allowing 11.2 runs per game (including games of 12, 13, and 18 runs). Offensively, they haven't cracked five runs during the streak. On the season, Baylor has the second-highest team ERA (6.12) in the Big 12 and the fifth-worst batting average (.278). By all accounts, this team is below average.

The only team with fewer home runs in the conference is TCU, but the Frogs make up for that lack of batting with the fourth-best team ERA in the league.

Right fielder Enzo Apodaca is likely the toughest out on the team. He leads the lineup with a .339 average and is the only Bear to draw more walks than strikeouts among those with 100 at-bats. The redshirt junior adds five home runs and 11 other extra base hits. DH Wesley Jordan paces Baylor with seven home runs and 11 doubles.

Unlike last weekend, Baylor doesn't pose much of a threat on the bases. Their 29 steals clocks in 11th and their 66% steal success rate (29/44) is by far the worst in the conference. With two elite defensive catchers behind the plate for TCU, don't expect too many steal attempts this season.

There's no reason to sugar coat – Baylor doesn't do a lot well this season. A C+ effort from TCU should be enough to win the series and a B effort likely turns in a sweep.

The conundrum is: TCU's season is a C- effort at best.

Pitching Matchups

Like many teams in college baseball, Baylor has two starting pitchers and a third wildcard. For one reason or another, Sundays have been disastrous for Baylor. In the month of April, opponents put up 14 runs per game in Game 3s and the Bears went 1-3. That lone victory was a wild 18-17 shootout at altitude against BYU. Even Incarnate Word (159th in DSR) pasted Baylor 14-1 in a Game 3 in Waco.

Even starter Collin McKinney (3-5, 5.98 ERA) melted in his one Game 3 start. The 6-foot-5 righty is the usual Saturday starter and lost both of his last two starts (note: he was awarded a win for the 18-17 game over BYU despite allowing four runs and issuing five walks in three innings). McKinney has turned in some quality starts this season. Four times has he held opponents to two or fewer earned runs.

Junior Mason Marriott (3-4, 5.44) is the other solidified starter and likely takes the mound Friday. Aside from a total nine-run meltdown against West Virginia last weekend (1.2 IP), Marriott has held opponents to three or fewer runs in six straight starts and four or fewer in eight straight. The WVU outing also cost Marriott a five-star win streak.

Sunday's starter is anyone's guess, as each of the last six Game 3s featured a different arm.

Key To A TCU Victory

Neither team boasts much offensive threat. This weekend, it'll come down to run management and playing a B+ series to go 3-0.

Payton Tolle (5-3, 3.16) continues his role as the team's Ace. His 99 strikeouts lead the Big 12 by nearly 20 and is fifth-best in the country. Last Friday, he contributed half of a shutout over Kansas State. Louis Rodriguez (3-2, 4.54) continued to struggle, allowing three runs in three innings, but the bullpen held K-State to just one run the rest of the game en route to a 7-4 series-winning victory.

Caedmon Parker (2-1, 3.70) was the latest Horned Frog to get a crack at a Game 3 start. He was handed a loss by decision after giving up two runs in 1.1 innings despite the next three arms to take over also allowing two runs each. Parker managed just one strikeout and his role as the Game 3 starter is certainly in doubt this weekend.

Sunday all comes down to run support. Without a confident Game 3 starter, TCU's offense has to find a way to five or more runs. 2-1 is a fine series win, but 3-0 nearly punches TCU's ticket to the conference tournament.

Player To Watch

I like to diversify who is featured here and also to be specific with player names and roles. But this week, I'm leaving it nebulous.

Whoever gets the Sunday start is my player to watch.

For obvious reasons

How To Watch TCU Vs. Baylor

When: May 3, 6:30 p.m. | May 4, 2:00 p.m. | May 5, 1:00 p.m.

Where: Baylor Ballpark (Waco, TX)

TV/Streaming: Big 12 Now on ESPN+

Radio: KTCU 88.7 FM

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