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NCAA Baseball Projections: TCU Potentially Headed to Santa Barbara

D1Baseball has updated its postseason projections. Who makes the field of 64 this week?
Barry Lewis|
TCU's Caedmon Parker in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Baseball Championship
TCU's Caedmon Parker in the Phillips 66 Big 12 Baseball Championship | Brian McLean - On Assignment Photo/KillerFrogs

Latest Projections for the NCAA Baseball Tournament


  1. Big 12 Schools Projected in the NCAA Tournament

  2. TCU Non-Conference Opponents Projected in the NCAA Tournament

  3. Projected Regional Tournament Hosts: The Top 16

  4. Projected College World Series Brackets

With the conference tournaments now winding down, there is increased anticipation for Monday’s selection show when all 64 teams in the NCAA Tournament are announced.


Early Thursday morning, D1Baseball.com, one of the leading sources of college baseball information, scores, and more, updated its projections for the postseason tournament. D1Baseball has seven of the 13 teams in the Big 12 making the postseason.


TCU (33-20, 14-16 Big 12) is projected to be a No. 3 seed in the Santa Barbara Regional, along with No. 12 UC Santa Barbara, future Big 12 opponent Arizona, and Wright State.


A few weeks ago, the Frogs weren’t sure they’d make a spot in the Big 12 Tournament and were among the last four teams out in D1Baseball’s projections. Now, after winning at least two games in the Big 12 Championship, they most likely have secured a spot in the conference tournament.


Before the Kansas State series, TCU head coach Kirk Saarloos said that if TCU went 6-3 in its last three conference series and maintain a mid-30s RPI, they should be in the tournament. TCU did go 6-3 in those last three series, and after Wednesday’s win over K-State in the tournament, TCU’s RPI sits at 35, fourth best in the Big 12.


Two Big 12 schools, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, are projected to host Regional. Dallas Baptist, a team TCU beat twice this year, is projected to make the tournament as a No. 2 seed in the Chapel Hill Regional.


Here are some of the projections from D1Baseball.com as of May 24:


Big 12 Schools Projected in the NCAA Tournament


Kansas State– Projected No. 3-seed in the Fayetteville Regional.


Oklahoma – Projected No. 7 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Norman. They would then be line to host a Super Regional, potentially against No. 10 Virginia.


Oklahoma State– Projected No. 13 national seed, which would have them hosting a Regional in Stillwater. Their potential Super Regional would be in College Station against No. 4 Texas A&M.


TCU – Projected No. 3 seed in the Santa Barbara Regional.


Texas – Projected No. 2 seed in the College Station Regional.


UCF – Projected No. 3 seed in the Knoxville Regional.


West Virginia – Projected No. 2 seed in the Charlottesville Regional.


TCU Non-Conference Opponents Projected in the NCAA Tournament


Dallas Baptist – Projected No. 2 seed in the Chapel Hill Regional.


Projected Regional Tournament Hosts: The Top 16


1. Lexington Regional (Kentucky)

2. Knoxville Regional (Tennessee)

3. Chapel Hill Regional (North Carolina)

4. College Station Regional (Texas A&M)

5. Fayetteville Regional (Arkansas)

6. Clemson Regional (Clemson)

7. Norman Regional (Oklahoma)

8. Athens Regional (Georgia)

9. Tallahassee Regional (Florida State)

10. Charlottesville Regional (Virginia)

11. Raleigh Regional (NC State)

12. Santa Barbara Regional (UC Santa Barbara)

13. Stillwater Regional (Oklahoma State)

14. Corvallis Regional (Oregon State)

15. Terre Haute Regional (Indiana State)

16. Greenville Regional (East Carolina)


Projected College World Series Brackets


Assuming every host team wins their Regional (they won’t) and the bottom eight regional hosts all go on the road to play the Super Regional at the top eight teams, and assuming the top eight national seeds all win the Supers (they won’t), here’s how the brackets would be in Omaha:


Bracket One

• (1) Kentucky

• (4) Texas A&M

• (5) Arkansas

• (8) Georgia


Bracket Two

• (2) Tennessee

• (3) North Carolina

• (6) Clemson

• (7) Oklahoma

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Barry Lewis
BARRY LEWIS

Barry is the managing editor/publisher of TCU Horned Frogs On SI and oversees a team of 15+ writers, photographers, and podcasters covering all 22 of TCU’s sports. He writes on football, basketball (men’s and women’s), baseball, men’s tennis, and other sports as needed. His weekly articles include Big 12 Power Rankings and Poll Watching during the football, basketball, and baseball seasons. He is a frequent guest on one of the many podcasts that TCU Horned Frogs On SI writers host covering football, baseball, basketball, and other sports. Barry is a member of the Football Writers Association of America (FWAA), U.S. Basketball Writers Association (USBWA), and National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association (NCBWA). He has represented TCU Horned Frogs On SI at the 2022 Fiesta Bowl, the 2023 College Football National Championship, the 2023 College World Series, the 2024 NCAA Men’s Tennis National Championship, Big 12 Football Media Days, and Big 12 Basketball Media Days. Barry has followed TCU sports since the Jim Wacker days. He is an avid sports fan and traveler, and he loves any opportunity to see a sporting event in person. He has been to 18 of the 30 MLB ballparks, experienced game day at 25 college football stadiums, seen 21 NFL stadiums, and been to 16 bowl games.

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