Nichols: Rick Barnes has a hard ceiling, and Tennessee revealed again on Friday
Remember that column from yesterday, the one where I wrote to enjoy Tennessee’s NCAA Tournament ride no matter how long it lasted?
Never mind, at least where the men’s team is concerned. It wasn’t fun, and it didn’t last.
Instead, today comes with an urging to accept the truth: Rick Barnes has hit his ceiling at Tennessee, and no new recruit can change that.
If Kennedy Chandler and Jahmai Mashack happen to come across this column, I’m sorry. You’re both fantastically talented players, and I hope you and Josiah-Jordan James prove me wrong next year.
But there’s little chance of that happening.
After what we saw yesterday, and especially with what’s brutally, slowly unfolded in the past several years, the sad truth is this:
Rick Barnes is a wonderful human being, a Christ-like example for his players to follow, and he can out-develop every other coach in the country. But when the big moments come and Barnes sticks to his same old habits, his teams crumble every time.
Utter refusal to stop opposing runs with timeouts. Too much focus on guard play and not enough on big man recruiting or development. Complete inability to switch defenses or adjust offensive approach when other teams become flexible.
These reasons are namely why Tennessee has underachieved so often during Barnes’ career, even with the spectacular talent that he has stimulated on Rocky Top.
They also paint a picture for every team Barnes has coached — Providence, Clemson, Texas and Tennessee — and why those programs have been built impressively under his tutelage, only to fall when the lights come on.
Those lights also appeared too bright for the 37-year head coach, who shifted the blame to freshmen that he said had “stage fright” on Friday. But isn’t a coach’s job to prepare his players for a national spotlight?
Whatever the case, the Vols flailed.
5-seed Tennessee fell to 12-seed Oregon State 70-56 in the first round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. The game marked the latest 12-5 upset in tournament history even though, at this point, those matchups almost lean more toward the 12-seed.
And those two stage-frightened freshmen? They were two of just three Vols to reach double figures in points on Friday. Keon Johnson had 14 points and six rebounds, Jaden Springer had 12 points with three boards, and Santiago Vescovi notched 11 points and three rebounds.
Josiah-Jordan James, the team’s most versatile component, led the Vols with a whopping 13 rebounds. He also took the loss hard, saying “it’s on me” and promising the Vols “will be back.”
Those are wonderful sentiments from a battle-tested team leader, albeit one that seemed to put the weight of the world on his own shoulders. But those shoulders are not where Tennessee’s blame should ultimately rest. Not at this point.
Coming into the game, statistics favored Barnes’ team. Despite the Vols’ horrible inconsistencies throughout the year, Tennessee was, at a minimum, expected to remain in Indianapolis until Sunday.
But, like so many other times, Barnes’ own ceiling kept his group from going further. The aforementioned issues that plagued UT throughout the year — that have plagued the Vols throughout Barnes’ tenure — resurfaced in an ugly heap on Friday afternoon.
Refusal to stop runs: See Oregon State’s 14-point halftime lead, which ballooned to a 20-point margin early in the second half.
Too much focus on guard play and not enough presence inside: See Roman Silva’s stat line, Yves Pons’ constant bench presence, and the decision to start Uros Plavsic.
Oregon State’s big man dominated a John Fulkerson-less paint, and he netted 16 points and four rebounds on Friday. Silva averaged five points per game coming into the contest.
Yves Pons managed just four points, and he was sidelined in the first half after drawing two quick fouls — which should not have kept him on the bench given the Vols’ struggles in the paint.
Plavsic notched just one point and three rebounds. He’s been respectable in Fulkerson’s absence, but not good enough to warrant his fourth career start in the first round of March Madness. Moreover, in the one situation where Barnes should have considered guard play over inside game, he kept James on the sideline to start when Fulkerson was already out with a black eye and concussion.
Complete inability to switch defenses or adjust offensive approach: See the Beavers’ 47.6 clip from long range and Tennessee’s brick-layered 19% from the same distance.
In short, the Vols’ pre-tournament hotel quarantine lasted longer than their skid-marked run, which put a sour-tasting cherry on top of a season that leaves fans wondering, “What if?”
Sure, this wasn’t a team with Admiral Schofield or Grant Williams. But those groups flamed out under Barnes, too.
2018: Lost to Loyola-Chicago
2019: Collapsed against Purdue
2020: Pass
2021: Pass again, apparently
Last year, Fulkerson and Pons formed an All-SEC duo. Together, they looked poised to pick up this season where Schofield and Williams left off two years ago.
Instead, Pons will head to the draft after a forgetful final performance, and Fulkerson will weigh his options for the future. Tennessee’s performance on Friday certainly didn’t give him a reason to stay.
Let’s not forget Springer and Johnson, either. Those are two potential NBA lottery picks whose short-lived UT careers went the way of Springer on Friday afternoon: impressive, but with a limp at the end.
In short, this team could have been the one to reach Tennessee’s first Final Four in program history, and it’s partly the players’ fault that the Vols didn’t. But how many times have fans heard the phrase “this could be the year” during Barnes’ time in Knoxville, only for the coach’s own shortcomings to play a major role in why that run still hasn’t happened?
After Friday’s failure, Barnes holds a 24-25 career record in March Madness. That also puts him at 4-12 in the Big Dance as a 5-seed or worse. Also, according to Athlon Sports’ Bryan Fischer, he’s officially lost to every single seed, 1-12, at least once. “Horrifying” is not a good enough word to describe that feat.
Maybe if Barnes coaches long enough to earn a 1, 2, 3 or 4 seed, he could lose enough to win NCAA Tournament bingo.
He certainly hasn’t won anything else related to the tournament, nor has he been close enough to sniff it most of the time.
Moreover, after losses that doom the Vols’ chances at something better, Barnes points the finger at everyone except himself. Rarely has he admitted his own faults, and, in turn, that trait has become one of Barnes’ faults.
See the “stage fright” comment at the top for further explanation, or the fact that James shouldered the blame and we didn’t hear a peep from Barnes about his own miscues.
Such musings provide a stark contrast to Barnes’ upside, which he used to glean a $5 million-dollar contract — fifth-highest in college basketball — after flirting with UCLA two years ago. But that kind of salary increase brings a new level of expectation, and Barnes has failed to deliver every time.
In overall numbers, Barnes is excellent. The Henry Iba Coach of the Year for 2019, he’s made his mark as the 18th-winningest coach in Division I history, 727-387 overall. He has led Tennessee to an SEC title and is one of 12 coaches to lead three programs to Sweet Sixteen appearances.
He’s also an expert at developing players into NBA-ready talent, and he’s done a masterful job leading this team through a stressful, problematic, hectic year that no one saw coming.
And, as mentioned, he’s a fantastic person. Barnes sticks up for his guys and, ultimately, he leads them to become better men.
Still, none of those statements excused what we saw Friday, or what Barnes hasn’t been able to achieve.
When you comb through the list of those top five salaries for college basketball coaches, four of those contracts are written for national title winners and consistent Final Four contenders.
Except for one Final Four appearance with Texas in 2003, Barnes has never been one of those. And at Tennessee, he has better facilities and backing than some of the other names on that list.
One of those other names, John Calipari, led a historically bad Kentucky team this year. Those same Wildcats still beat the brakes off Barnes’ Vols on their home court.
All this isn’t to say Danny White will make a move, at least not soon. Barnes’ teams typically have too high a floor to consider such a maneuver, especially with Barnes firmly entrenched in an excellent second tier of college basketball’s best.
But the ceiling separating Barnes from that first tier is the same one that has kept the Vols from making history, even while playing above par.
Looking across Tennessee athletics (except at Covid-riddled football), Barnes’ program used to be the main one on the upswing. Now, Tony Vitello has become the fastest coach in Tennessee baseball history to reach 100 wins, Ralph and Karen Weekly have the softball team on another hot start, and Kellie Harper’s Lady Vols have a strong chance at their own tournament run starting Sunday.
All that, combined with poor postseason presence and another crop of talented incoming recruits, puts quite a bit of pressure on Rick Barnes.
Let’s hope that pressure doesn’t cause Barnes’ floor to fall, at least not any deeper than it did this season. If it does? Well, his teams have to go somewhere.
They’re certainly not getting past his ceiling anytime soon.
