Staff Predictions: How Far Will The Vols Go?
After a season of ups and downs, the NCAA Tournament is upon us. Teams from across the country have entered the Tournament Bubble in Indiana, brackets are set, and the games are ready to get underway.
One of the most intriguing teams sits as a five seed out of Knoxville. Rick Barnes has seen his squad ranked in the top five during the 2020-2021 season, and he has seen them unranked.
They have dominated some of the elite teams in the nation, and they have suffered stunning losses.
The Vols fell short of their goals of an SEC Regular Season and SEC Tournament crown; however, they may be the most talented and dangerous representative from the conference when they are playing well.
The issue for Tennessee all season long has come back to offensive inconsistency.
When the Vols are even average on offense, they are extremely difficult to defeat. The problem has been that Tennessee has endured games where they were positively abysmal trying to score points.
Even in those outings, the Vols’ exceptional play on the defensive end can keep them in games.
On paper, the Vols find themselves in a favorable bracket, but which Tennessee team will show up? Which teams can the Vols overcome if their offense is off? Just how far can this team go in the tournament?
Our staff members at VR2 on SI offer their thoughts below.
Brandon: Sweet Sixteen
Tennessee’s bracket is one of the most difficult to predict in the entire NCAA Tournament, and the Vols are the biggest reason why. Tennessee has struggled the last few seasons against teams that can spread the floor offensively and shoot the three pointer well. That describes Tennessee’s first round opponent, Oregon State, to a tee. The Beavers can be dangerous from deep, and they are hot off a strong PAC 12 Tournament performance. Oregon State does struggle defensively though, and they haven’t faced a team as strong defensively as the Vols. This should be a first round win for Tennessee, but the propensity for bad shooting performances by the Vols looms over that decision. This particular Tennessee squad feels like a team that gets to the Sweet 16, though they could get bounced in the first round or make a run to the Final Four, so I am splitting the difference. This is a bracket that is favorable to Tennessee if they bring their A game. A dialed in Tennessee squad is capable of making a deep run, however I expect the inconsistency that has plagued them all season to crop up somewhere and cost them an earlier exit.
Matt: Sweet Sixteen
I could see Tennessee exiting as early as the first round, but I could also see them making a deep run. That is a testament to how unpredictable Rick Barnes's team has been. I think Barnes is right in saying some things came together at the right time for Tennessee. I believe Tennessee will make it past Oregon State on Friday night, which likely sets up a showdown with Oklahoma State. I am rolling with Keon Johnson and Tennessee's defense to win a close one. I don't think the Vols have enough firepower to make it past the Sweet Sixteen unless something drastically changed. The deeper Tennessee goes, the more likely it is to get John Fulkerson back, which could inject some energy. Fulkerson would need to play at a high level coming off of his injury if the Vols were to make it any further. Without him, I do not like Tennessee's chances and I see a Sweet Sixteen exit in their future.
Jake: Round of 32
I think that Tennessee makes it past Oregon State on Friday. The Vols are favored in virtually every statistic going into that matchup, and with John Fulkerson still being listed as “day-to-day,” players will be motivated to put the same result on the floor that we saw against Alabama. Of course, that game was a loss for Tennessee, but against any team except the Crimson Tide, I think you could chalk that semifinal up to a Vols win. That same approach extends to Oregon State, assuming we saw the same Tennessee team that played two tough tournament games in Nashville. But that’s where the buck stops.
If Tennessee meets Oklahoma State in the Round of 32, which I think it will, then Cade Cunningham and the Cowboys will be too much of a problem for the Vols, especially when Tennessee enters its second-half cold stretch on offense (which has basically become an every-game situation). Keon Johnson will be fun to watch when he works against Cunningham, as that individual matchup will pit two potential lottery picks against one another. Overall, though, Tennessee won’t get enough production across the board to crack the Sweet Sixteen. That’s disappointing for a team with this much potential, but it’s also what we’ve come to expect given the wild season this team has experienced so far.
Could this team catch fire and make a Final Four run? Absolutely; that’s what makes these Vols dangerous. But is that run what most expect to happen at this point? Not by a long shot, at least with the inconsistency this team showed in the regular season.
