3 Areas Where Texas Tech Must Improve To Win the College Football Playoff
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The No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders will find out on Saturday, Dec. 20, who their Orange Bowl opponent will be when No. 5 Oregon takes on the 12th-seeded James Madison Dukes in Eugene, Ore. Until then, though, the Red Raiders still have plenty of opportunity to study, prepare, and improve as they get ready for their trip to Florida.
Tech returned to practice on Monday, Dec. 15, about a week and a half after defeating BYU for the Big 12 title. After running the table in their conference following their loss to Arizona State, the Red Raiders are ready to prove themselves on the national stage.
However, while the overall stats look fantastic for Texas Tech — top-five marks in points, points allowed, yards, and yards allowed per game —there are still critical inflection points that can be improved upon in pursuit of a national championship. Where do the Red Raiders need to clean up before they kick off the College Football Playoff?
1) Penalties
One of the biggest issues throughout the season for the Red Raiders was penalties, particularly pre-snap penalties along the offensive line. Texas Tech was 96th in penalties per game with 6.77 while losing 57.15 yards per game.
Surprisingly, though, this was a big issue for several playoff teams, proving not to be a death knell. Among programs in the CFP, the Red Raiders lost the sixth-most yards per game behind Ole Miss, Oklahoma, Miami (FL), Texas A&M, and James Madison.
However, the three contenders who have the shortest odds to win the national title, according to DraftKings Sportsbook, all have significantly fewer penalty yards lost per game: Indiana (28.46, fourth-fewest), Ohio State (40.69, 18th), and Georgia (43.92, 26th). This is an area where Tech can improve to separate itself from the pack while catching up to the best teams in the country.
Critically, pre-snap penalties have been an issue for the offense all season. One game where it stuck out like a sore thumb was against Utah, when Tech recorded seven false starts while struggling with the noise at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, Utah. After the game, head coach Joey McGuire admitted that the team had not installed a silent count in preparation for the game.
"We got to work a silent count," McGuire said. "We talked about it. We decided not to do it. We've never had to use that on the road before, but this was a loud place."
It is unclear whether the Red Raiders ever built a silent count into their offense after that, but pre-snap penalties remained an issue for the rest of the season. In the Big 12 Championship Game — a neutral-site game in Arlington, Texas, with a crowd that heavily favored the Red Raiders — the offense committed another four false starts, with two coming in the red zone on a drive that ended in a missed field goal.
Fortunately, Texas Tech will not have a single game in a team's home stadium going forward, with every College Football Playoff matchup effectively at a neutral site. Regardless of who they face in the Orange Bowl, it will be a feat of travel to attend the quarterfinal matchup at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.
Regardless, the offensive line has proven to be mistake-prone before the snap, and it is an area that needs to be improved. It will prevent the team from losing unnecessary yards, which can be the difference between a win and a loss as the competition gets steeper.
This season, the Red Raiders' five starting offensive linemen have combined for 38 penalties, with guard Davion Carter accounting for zero. Both tackle Howard Sampson and center Sheridan Wilson have double-digit penalties through 13 games.
This goes hand in hand with the Red Raiders' offensive struggles, and if the offensive line can clean up its play, Tech will be in a good position, regardless of the opponent.
2) Offensive Consistency
It is easy to assume that an offense averaging 480.3 yards per game (fifth) and 42.5 points per game (second) would be a well-oiled machine. At times, it certainly is, as the Red Raiders can score quickly and in bursts.
However, from down to down, Texas Tech's offense has been a bit more sporadic. Adjusted for the opponent, the Red Raiders' EPA (expected points added) per play ranks 88th in the country at -0.05; among playoff teams, this only ranks above Oklahoma (-0.12, 114th), an offense that has received much more criticism than Texas Tech's.
This makes sense when paired with the fact that Texas Tech is ranked 86th nationally in success rate and 80th in havoc rate.
Success rate measures how often an offense gains the necessary yards to keep an offense ahead of the sticks (i.e., 50% of available yards on first downs, 70% on second downs, and 100% on third and fourth downs). Havoc rate, meanwhile, measures how often an offense results in a negative play, such as tackles for loss, passes defensed, and forced fumbles.
This indicates that the Red Raiders struggle to consistently gain the necessary yards on a given down while regularly making negative plays. This is why it often feels as though Tech's offense is prone to stalling out when it does not hit on multiple big plays.
This is why it has been critical for Tech to play ball-control offense in the second halves of games. With a defense capable of shutting down any opponent, the Red Raiders have relied on scoring outbursts to give them halftime leads before relying on a ground-and-pound approach to seal the win.
In 10 Big 12 games, including the conference championship, the Red Raiders averaged 98.8 yards per game on the ground in the second half. This has been a recipe for success, but if Tech does not get out to an early lead, then it may not work to the same degree.
This offensive inconsistency also rests on quarterback Behren Morton. While he has been the veteran presence the team needs under center, he has struggled against pressure all season. When under pressure, his PFF passing grade this season has dropped from an 88.7 to a 46.0.
This has led to some underwhelming performances when facing the best teams, with his four worst passing grades coming against Kansas (46.8), BYU twice (53.0 and 57.8 in the title game), and Utah (65.7).
The Red Raiders will need more offensive consistency in the first half of games going forward if Texas Tech wants to win it all.
3) Converting Pressures Into Sacks
The Red Raiders undoubtedly have one of the best pass-rushing units in the country. They led the Big 12 in sacks with 39, tied for the fourth-most in the country.
David Bailey led the country in total pressures (76), while teammate Romello Height finished seventh with 57. Among interior defenders, A.J. Holmes Jr. finished fifth with 35.
However, eight of the 25 teams with the best PFF pass-blocking grade, including Texas Tech, are in the College Football Playoff, including a potential second-round opponent in Oregon (88.9, first). Furthermore, 11 of the 12 teams rank inside the top 50, with Tulane ranking 54th.
The Red Raiders have proven to be elite at many things defensively, and getting to the quarterback is certainly one of them. However, the matchups will not get any easier as the postseason progresses, and that makes any opportunity that much more important.
For Bailey, Height, Holmes, Lee Hunter, and the rest of the defense, they need to capitalize on each chance in the backfield and make sure to convert their pressures into sacks. If not, the savvy offenses and skilled quarterbacks could make them pay for it.
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Jordan Epp is a journalist who graduated from Texas A&M in 2022 and is passionate about telling stories, sharing news, and finding ways to entertain people through the medium of sports. He has formerly worked as a writer and editor at The Battalion and The Eagle, covering football in College Station, Texas, and served as the managing editor for PFSN.
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