A Jersey Guy: CFB Mantra: Follow The Money

Bob Woodward: Hunt's come in from the cold. Supposedly he's got a lawyer with $25,000 in a brown paper bag.

Deep Throat: Follow the money.

Those line were spoken in All the President's Men, the 1976 film about the Watergate break-in which eventually led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon.

Forty-eight years later, Deep Throat's simple advice to Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward has become an accurate guide to understanding many issues involving major college sports.

FTM

For a sense of perspective, let's look at some numbers.

470 million dollars (the average payout per year for FBS schools from the current CFP plan which will soon be changed.

$1. 1 billion dollars (the average yearly payout to NCAA schools from revenue generated by its men's basketball tournament)

10 billion dollars (the average amount of revenue generated each year in college athletics)

$1.2 billion dollars (the project amount of the annual payout to CFB teams with a 12 team playoff system)

But those numbers were pre-COVID, which has wiped out almost everyone's profit margin.

Here are a few more post-COVID numbers, which could be used as a fair estimate of the financial situation Power 5 members are facing.

62.9 million dollars (the projected fiscal year 2021 deficit projected by the University of Michigan.

$1.4 million dollars (the projected 2022 fiscal year surplus projected by the University of Michigan).

All of which brings us to the NIL era beginning on Thursday which will allow college players to monetize their name, image and likeness, a transfer portal rule which has created limited free agency in college football and a potential expansion of the CFP system from 4 to 12 teams.

The cash-cow is the 12-team playoff, which could start as soon as the 2023 college football season with ESPN as the sole, exclusive outlet.

When asked if 2023 was the earliest date a new plan could be implemented, CFP Executive Director Bill Hancock was both clear and vague.

""Yes,'' he said during a conference call last week. ""Not to say that it will happen then, but that's the earliest that it could. And I don't want the headline to say, "Hancock says it could happen in 2023'' but that's just the earliest. It can not happen this year or next.''

When asked why not, Hancock said: "Contracts are in place. That's the main reason. And if you think about it, by the time this gets approved, even if it does get approved in September or if its kicked down the road after that, we'd be pretty close to that season starting.''

But that's not the major obstacle to a relatively quick restructuring of the 4-team playoff system which is not scheduled to expire until the end of the 2025 season.

As part of that contract, ESPN has exclusive rights for any negotiations through that period, which is probably why ESPN is working to put together a package which can begin earlier.

If the contract expires, multiple offers are expected, which brings us back to the three word college athletic mantra: Follow the Money.

It will take some time to sort out--but maybe not four years.

"It you think about it, this is a big deal,'' said Hancock, a long-time NCAA veteran who has guided FBS football through expansion from the BCS to the CFP to the next bigger more inclusive grouping. ""And everyone needs to have a voice in what happens. And there hasn't been time to have that voice heard."

While the outcome--or at least the time structure--has not been reached, one thing again seems obvious.

FTM will provide the best clues.