Extra Points: Cincinnati still faces huge hurdles into the playoffs
Tony Barnhart (Mr. CFB) and Mark Blaudschun (A Jersey Guy) both love college football, but sometimes they have different opinions on CFB issues.
Topic: Will Cincinnati make it into the CFP playoffs?
A Jersey Guy: An easy answer would be if Cincinnati runs the table to finish with a 13-0 record, Yes.
Not so fast, Mr. CFB.
I would say this, Cincinnati, because of its placement in the current rankings (No; 5) has an excellent chance at becoming the first Group of 5 conference team to be chosen as a Final Four team.
But this is where its gets sticky.
Let's start with some obvious conclusions.
Unbeaten Cincinnati does not get in ahead of any unbeaten Power 5 conference champion.
It doesn't get in over a once beaten Georgia or a once beaten Alabama.
What helps Cincinnati is the elimination of Notre Dame and the ACC and the Pac-12 if Oregon loses again.
It also helps to have a shaky Oklahoma coming out of the Big 12.
And you could argue if Oklahoma does figure things out that Cincinnati could get in over an unbeaten Oklahoma.
Not going to happen.
And then there is Oregon. If Oregon wins out and finishes 12-1, will that be enough to offset an unbeaten Cincinnati, whose major quality win is against Notre Dame, while Oregon will have only an overtime road loss at Stanford and win over Ohio State in Columbus.
And we are not even talking about a sleeper upset against an AAC opponent such as UCF or SMU, although both of those games are at home. But there are other trap games (at Tulane, at Navy?).
So I'm going to say that it will be close, but another trip to the Peach, Sugar or Fiesta Bowl for the Bearcats, even a perfect Bearcat team.
Mr. CFB
That's certainly a lot of "Ifs" Jersey Guy.
So let's deal in a few facts.
I will grant you this "if". Cincinnati only gets in if the Bearcats go 13-0.
But if they do, I like their chances. Here's why.
There has always been several unwritten rules for the Group of Five hopefuls to reach the CFP.
Rule No. 1: Take care of business in your own conference and do it rather convincingly. As we look at the rest of the Cincinnati schedule that looks more than doable.
Rule No. 2: Schedule two Power Five oponents, even if you have to go on the road. Cincinnati went to Indiana and Notre Dame in the space of three weeks. Notre Dame made the playoffs last season and Indianan was a Top 10 team.
Rule No. 3: Beat both Power Five teams. The Bearcats certainly did that.
Do those three things and it has been understood that the Group of Five team will be in the discussion when the rankings that matter start being released on Nov. 2.
It also helps if there is chaos in the other Power Five conferences. The ACC has problem because Clemson already has two losses. Oklahoma, the banner carrier in the Big 12, has yet to impress and has a tough game coming up with Texas. Oregon took a big hit for the Pac-12 by losing to Stanford in overtime.
This much we know: Alabama and Georgia from the SEC are both going to the playoffs. Somebody from the Big Ten will be in. And we could be having a debate about the Big Ten runnerup with one loss versus undefeated Cincinnati for the fourth and final slot.
It's early but we always know this. Cincinnati is No. 5 in the recent AP poll. But No. 4 Penn State is at No. 3 Iowa on Saturday and so somebody has to drop. We're assuming Cincinnati beats Temple and will move up to No. 4.
And the argument about Cincinnati will be intense. There will be a lot of momentum to finally give the Group of Five a chance. Stay tuned.