MARCH MADNESS: It's "Bubble''-Bursting Time
We are now in the final week of the regular season, league tournaments have already started and there is a scramble among the majors looking for NCAA tournament consideration if they are eliminated in their conference tournaments.
This is what we do know.
There will be 32 automatic bids awarded to each conference tournament champion. Twenty-two of those champions are likely to receive only one bid. That means 10 conferences will fill the remaining 46 spots.
This not a banner year for Mid-Majors. Possible contenders for at-large slots (if they are upset in their conference tournaments) are Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), Liberty (Atlantic Sun) Eastern Tennessee (Southern) and Stephen F. Austin (Southland), but don't count on it.
With that in mind, here are the contenders from the Major conferences.
American Athletic Conference (2)
This league is a seeding nightmare and will probably receive a maximum of two bids.
But which two? Tulsa is on top by half game right now, but Houston, Cincinnati and Wichita State are all in the mix. UConn (8-8) is the hottest team in the league with a three game winning streak.
Tournament guess: Houston, Wichita State
Atlantic 10 Conference (1)
Another two bid conference. Dayton is the class of the field and is guaranteed a spot no matter what happens in Brooklyn next week. But if the Flyers win, its a very iffy proposition whether Richmond or Rhode Island receive the second bid. Safest way to two bids is that Dayton is upset.
Tournament guess: Dayton
Atlantic Coast Conference (4)
Not a great year for the ACC in basketball or football. The league is top heavy with Florida State, Duke and Louisville all quality teams, capable of making a Final Four run. Virginia's defense is good enough to carry them as well, but the Cavs are one of the least offensive teams in the country. After that, no one really deserves a spot unless they win their way into the tournament in Greensboro. Having said that, keep an eye on North Carolina, a bottom feeder all year. If any team can put together a winning streak it might be the Tar Heels, especially with the friendly crowds in Greensboro offering support.
Tournament guess: Duke, Louisville, FSU, Virginia
Big 12 Conference (6)
A solid season for the Big 12. Baylor and Kansas have been Top 4 quality teams all season and West Virginia and Texas Tech are Top 20 material. Texas and Oklahoma have played their way into "bubble'' consideration. Texas has had the steepest climb, putting together a 7 game winning streak, which has moved them into third.
Tournament guess: Kansas, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma
Big East Conference (7)
Most balanced conference, with 8 quality teams, in the country. Seton Hall, Villanova and Creighton have jousted for the top slot, while Butler and a surging Providence beating all comers with a five game winning streak are not far behind. Looks like a 6 and probably 7 bid season. Even last place Depaul (3-14) can nip you.
Tournament guess: Villanova, Seton Hall, Creighton, Providence, Butler, Marquette, Xavier
Big Ten Conference (10)
Parity? Or something else. It's hard enough to pick the teams at the top--four teams have six conference losses, but what about the teams near the bottom, with four teams hovering around the .500 mark. Other than Minnesota, Nebraska and Northwestern, NO ONE is eliminated from consideration, which is 11 teams. That's too much, but if a Purdue or Indiana can find a way to earn the automatic bid with a conference tournament championship, that is possible.
Tournament guess: Maryland, Wisconsin, Michigan State, Illinois, Penn State, Iowa, Ohio State, Rutgers, Michigan, Indiana
Mountain West Conference (2)
San Diego State has been nearly flawless in its play all season. The Aztecs have a tournament slot sealed no matter what happens in Vegas. After that, however, it is iffy. Utah State, Nevada and UNLV (which gave San Diego State its only loss) are contenders.
Tournament guess: San Diego State, Utah State.
Pac-12 Conference (7)
Call this the Big Ten West. Top is a mess. Seven teams are within two games of each other, with five-loss UCLA and Oregon, barely ahead of Arizona State, Colorado, USC, Arizona and surging (4 straight wins) Stanford. How do you decide? You don't. You invite them all--for now.
Tournament guess: UCLA, Oregon, Arizona State, Colorado, USC, Arizona, Stanford
Southeastern Conference (4)
Top heavy, with Kentucky on top, solidly ahead of a group of three which includes, Auburn, LSU and Florida. To get five bids, the SEC is going to have a sleeper--Miss State, South Carolina, Tennessee?--win the SEC tournament in Nashville.
Tournament guess: Kentucky, Auburn, LSU, Florida
West Coast Conference (3)
Another solid season for the WCC. Gonzaga is the class of the league with Final Four abilities. BYU and Saint Mary's are tournament worthy.
Tournament guess: Gonzaga, BYU, Saint Mary's.