Will Murray Wear Cleats, Spikes or Both?

This much we do know about Kyler Murray's employment future.

The Heisman winning quarterback at Oklahoma has a guaranteed payout of a $4.6 million signing bonus waiting for him as a first-round draft pick of the Oakland Athletics.

He is scheduled to report to spring training in Arizona with the Athletics on Feb.15.

If he decides to declare for the National Football League draft, he is projected as a first round--and possible No. 1 pick in the NFL draft this spring.

The current holder of the No. 1 pick is the Arizona Cardinals, who recently named Kliff Kingsbury as their new coach. Kingsbury has already publicly stated (but not yet as coach of the Cardinals) that if he had the No. 1 pick, he would make Murray his No. 1 pick.

The No. 1 pick in last spring's NFL draft was Murray's former teammate (and also a Heisman winner) Baker Mayfield, who was chosen by the Cleveland Browns and received a 4-year contract worth $32.68 million, including a signing bonus of $21.84 million.

Not bad for a kid coming out of college.

Now we get into the stuff which is causing a twitter frenzy and is open to both speculation and interpretation.

The record books are loaded with dual threat prospects, who were forced to make choices between baseball and football, ranging from such players as John Elway. Bo Jackson, Deion Sanders, Tim Tebow and Chris Weinke. Of that group, Jackson was the best, succeeding at the highest level in both sports.

The major question that Murray, his family, friends and advisers must answer is which is the better long term move?

From a health standpoint and from a financial standpoint, baseball is a better long term move. Careers can last longer and once you have reached major league status over a tenured type period (three to five years) the payouts can be mind boggling.

Long term contracts in the hundreds of millions of dollars are currently in play and careers can last as long as 20 years at a high salary and bonus level..

Football can pay that much, but the risk reward factor is much higher as well. NFL QBs such as Aaron Rogers and Matt Ryan each earn more than $30 million a year and are signed to multi-year deals with the Packers and Falcons.The average length of an NFL player's career is between three and six years.

For baseball players, even high draft picks, there is a nice bonus package when you sign, but overall financial security only becomes more solid, once you make the major league roster and perform.

For Murray, who received his signing bonus from the Athletics before he became college football's hottest product, the issue is more complex.

If he declares for the NFL draft and forsakes baseball, he will be required to give back the $4.6 million. OBut as a first round NFL pick, he will make much more than that in a signing bonus.

The higher the pick, the more money Murray will receive. If Murray can get a guarantee from the Cardinals that he will be their No. 1 pick, then he will have at least $32 million coming his way and it seems like a no brain decision. Even if (barring an injury) Murray does flame out in football, he can still make a career switch to baseball at the young age of 25 or 26.

Playing both sports at the same time is an option, although it is more complicated when the player is cast in a key leadership role such as QB. Bo Jackson could morph from baseball to football as an outfielder and running back, playing baseball from February through September and then jumping into football from September to January.

Arizona already has used one first round draft pick to find its QB of the future in selecting former UCLA QB Josh Rosen last spring. Rosen had a bumpy rookie season and would presumably be expendable (for at least a No. 1 pick) if Murray is chosen.

If that happens, sending Rosen to a team such as the Patriots, where he can learn even more under the guidance of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady might be the most logical move if the Patriots are interested.

The gamble from the NFL side is what if Murray says he wants to play football and then changes his mind after he is drafted or after a year in the process in which he is battered and bruised the way Rosen was with the Cardinals this season?

Is it worth the risk to take a player who may not be totally committed?

My guess is that Murray has been intoxicated by the Heisman hoopla and the prospect of getting a five time bigger bonus than he received in baseball, with a guarantee that he will be competing for a starting NFL job.

There are no such guarantees in baseball, since Murray will report as a prospect, but a super star.

He will choose football and see what deal he can work with the A's to play baseball AFTER his NFL commitments are over.

Major league baseball and the Athletics are working on a deal which can increase the financial benefits of choosing baseball, but going against the bright lights and glitter that Murray has seen the last several months is a tough opponent.