The Locksmith's Pick Six For Week 1
Can we get a little normalcy this college football season? Let's hope so.
The Locksmith is back, looking for a third straight winning season against the spread for TMG followers after going 52-36-1 a year ago.
So here goes:
WISCONSIN over Penn State, giving 5½
Which erratic QB starts showing some consistency first – the Badgers’ Graham Mertz or the Nittany Lions’ Sean Clifford? For now, we’ll say Mertz, since Clifford is working with a new OC in Mike Yurcich. Otherwise, these teams are fairly even – with a big homefield edge to the Badgers.
IOWA over Indiana, giving 3
This could actually be one of Kirk Ferentz’s better teams – one that doesn’t lose four games in a full season. Hawkeyes have a serviceable QB in Spencer Petras, a quality back in Tyler Goodson and a solid secondary. Will the six-game winning streak to end last year carry over? Waiting to see how Hoosiers’ QB Michael Penix, Jr. responds following a torn ACL last Nov. 28 before putting stock in Indiana again.
Byu at ARIZONA, giving 12½
Jaren Hall takes over at QB for Zach Wilson and has the advantage of 1,100-yard rusher Tyler Allgeier to lean on. The overlooked key to the Cougars’ 11-1 season last year was their defense. It should be good again. Wildcats, even with Don Brown as the new DC, have a long way to go after allowing 39.8 ppg last year. With a 12-game losing streak, new head coach Jedd Fisch will have to teach this team how to win again. That takes time.
Georgia over Clemson, taking 3 (in Charlotte, N.C.)
In big games like this, go with the more established QB. That’s J T Daniels, even though he started just the final four games last year. Bulldogs’ offense was energized when he took over, the running game will be solid, and the defense will be among the nation’s best. Clemson is still loaded talent-wise, but there has to be some adjustment after losing Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, the ACC’s career rushing leader. Tigers were a “soft” 10-2 last year, too.
UCLA over Lsu, taking 3
General rule of thumb: Never take a Pac-12 team not named USC against an SEC opponent. But this may be the exception, with Chip Kelly looking at his best team yet with the Bruins. They can run effectively, have an experienced QB in Dorian Thompson-Robinson and come into this with the advantage of having played a game. Tigers’ defense was a mess at times last year and there’s uncertainty over QB. Isn’t this about the time when Ed Orgeron’s shelf life generally expires with a program?
Alabama over Miami, giving 19½ (in Atlanta)
Yeah, yeah, we know: Eight of the top 38 picks in last year’s NFL Draft came from Alabama. So what else is new? Eager to see the Bryce Young era get started at QB for the Tide. And good luck against this veteran defense. Hurricanes will get QB D’Eriq King back from injury, but how effective will he be immediately? And what’s the advantage to head coach Manny Diaz now being the DC? Did anyone pay attention to Texas’s defense when he was DC there? This looks like 42-13.
Home team in CAPS