The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 14
If there's one positive to emerge from this COVID-19 affected college football season it's Saturday's BYU at Coastal Carolina game, arranged on 72 hours notice after Liberty had to withdraw following a virus outbreak.
It turns out it's not all that difficult to arrange a last-minute showdown between 9-0, nationally-ranked teams.
That might be something college football should consider even when the virus finally is under control and there's a return to normalcy. We'll see. Change happens slowly at the FBS level.
On to this week's picks:
MARSHALL over Rice, giving 23
Unbeaten Thundering should be well-rested after being off for 21 days and can beat you with an explosive offense (three games of 40 points or more) or a stingy defense (four opponents held to 10 points or less). Rice, which has played just three games so far, allowed seven sacks the last time it took the field, against North Texas. Marshall’s average margin of victory this year is 27.3, which covers this spread. Simple math, right?
Texas over KANSAS STATE, giving 7
Is Tom Herman approaching his final days as Texas coach? Rumors are certainly swirling. Longhorns have underachieved and the big year expected by senior QB Sam Ehlinger hasn’t materialized. But this is still a talented roster and K-State’s season is spiraling out of control with four straight losses, the most recent to a bad Baylor team. Frosh QB Will Howard will continue to take his lumps as he gains valuable experience.
Byu Over COASTAL CAROLINA, giving 10
A statement game for the 9-0 Cougars, who are desperately trying to work their way into a New Year’s Six bowl. Chanticleers have been a fun story at 9-0 but BYU – and QB Zach Wilson, a future first-round NFL draft pick – represent a different level. Cougars look like a complete team and have been dominant this year. Coastal is headed to the Sun Belt title game regardless of what happens here.
IOWA STATE over West Virginia, giving 6½
Cyclones have come too far to mess this up now, right? With Breece Hall emerging as the Big 12’s best back, ISU – winners of four straight – will clinch a spot in the league title game with a win here. Mountaineers have had an inconsistent year, though their rushing game has improved dramatically. This is a major test for QB Jarrett Doege.
Florida over TENNESSEE, giving 17½
Some recent numbers to consider with the Vols, who are reeling with a five-game losing streak: They have been outscored 108-14 in the second half of those five games and their average margin of defeat during the losing streak is 21 points. QB troubles remain an issue, whether or not highly-touted frosh Harrison Bailey starts or not. Another Heisman showcase moment for Gators QB Kyle Trask, who has Kyle Pitts back. Gators are headed to the SEC title game with a win here.
Nebraska over PURDUE, taking 1
Cornhuskers showed some fight in last week’s 26-20 loss to Iowa, even if coach Scott Frost can’t make up his mind at quarterback with Adrian Martinez or Luke McCaffrey. That indecisiveness is hurting this team too. But Boilermakers have not lived up to their promise since losing starting QB Aidan O’Connell for the season, dropping games to Minnesota and Rutgers – two exceedingly mediocre teams – the past two weeks. Even the return of talented Rondale Moore has not made a significant impact.
LAST WEEK VS. SPREAD: 2-3 (one game canceled)
SEASON TO DATE VS. SPREAD: 43-27-1
Home team in CAPS