The Locksmith's Pick Six For Week 6
There's no questioning the defenses that Iowa and Penn State will bring to their showdown on Saturday. But which quarterback -- the Hawkeyes' Spencer Petras or the Nittany Lions' Sean Clifford -- is ready to step up on a playoff-caliber stage?
Both have had their battles with inconsistency. One will have to be very good on Saturday for their team to stay in the playoff hunt.
Quarterback play will also be vital to the outcome between Texas and Oklahoma. Casey Thompson started the year as the backup to ballyhooed freshman Hudson Card on Texas' depth chart. Since taking over for Hand, Thompson -- whose father quarterbacked the Sooners in the 1980s -- has rejuvenated the Longhorns, with 160 points scored in his three games as a starter.
Spencer Rattler, meanwhile, began the year as one of the favorites for the Heisman. But the inconsistency in OU's offense and four close calls against FBS opponents recently had Sooners fans chanting for Rattler's backup.
The Locksmith, with five straight winning weeks against the spread to open the season, has an opinion on both games.
So let's get to the picks.
TENNESSEE over South Carolina, giving 10 1/2
No one is quite ready to stamp the Vols as a factor in the SEC East yet, but QB Hendon Hooker, the Virginia Tech transfer, has energized Tennessee's offense. He's a threat as a passer (10 TDs, one INT) and a runner (216 yards, three TDs). With RB Tiyon Evans averaging 6.4 yards per carry, the Vols -- second in the SEC in rushing at 255 yards per game --may finally have something going after years of struggles. Gamecocks' defense has kept them in most games thanks to an SEC-leading nine interceptions, but QB Luke Doty hasn't hit his stride since missing the first two games due to an injury and the running game doesn't present much of a threat.
Notre Dame over VIRGINIA TECH, giving 1
It sure seemed as if the Irish's offense had a spark when Drew Pine took over at QB for the struggling Jack Coan last week against Cincinnati, didn't it? It will be interesting to see which direction coach Brian Kelly goes this week. One thing is certain: Notre Dame needs to call on RB Chris Tyree and his big-play ability more. Irish's defense has actually shown some improvement of late, which could be a problem for QB Braxton Burmeister here. Tech has scored 21 points or less in three of the four games it has played so far. The highlight to the Hokies' year was the opening-game win over North Carolina. Not much has been impressive about them since then.
OHIO STATE over Maryland, giving 21
Trends are always important to pay attention to in college football and this one jumps out: The Buckeyes look poised to hit their stride, especially on offense, and Maryland looks as if it will limp home to the finish line of the season. Ohio State scored major style points in a 52-13 win at Rutgers last week, with QB C.J. Stroud continuing to improve each week. Buckeyes know they have to keep winning and impressing to stay in the playoff picture. Maryland was overwhelmed last week by Iowa as QB Taulia Tagovailoa was picked off five times after throwing one INT the first four games. Now the Terps are without the Big Ten's leading receiver, Dontay Demus, who suffered a season-ending knee injury last week. This one could get ugly.
Texas over Oklahoma, taking 3 1/2 (in Dallas)
For now it's a Big 12 showdown. In a few years it will be just another SEC game. Looking at these two on paper, how do you ignore the obvious: Texas' offense has been explosive in Casey Thompson's three starts at QB and Oklahoma has won all four of its games against FBS opponents by a touchdown or less in unimpressive fashion. Something is just not clicking for the Sooners, though they have improved defensively. The biggest difference here: Texas has a legitimate running threat in Bijan Robinson (652 rushing yards, 6.2 ypc, seven TDs). This game gives off a vibe that the Longhorns are improving and Oklahoma is stagnant.
IOWA over Penn State, giving 2
It's all about the defenses, right? They're ranked Nos. 2 and 3 in the country after all. But maybe not. If QB Shane Petras can step up to the challenge, the Hawkeyes' offense is much more dangerous and balanced than Penn State's, which lacks a consistent running game. That puts a lot of QB Sean Clifford, who has been much better this year after struggling with turnovers last season. One advantage the Nittany Lions do have: Star WR Jahan Dotson. But Penn State hasn't yet faced a road test like this. And Iowa has defeated five straight ranked opponents.
Alabama over TEXAS A&M, giving 17 1/2
It's pretty apparent that with Zach Calzada at QB the Aggies' offense doesn't scare anyone. And we've seen that A&M's defense can only hold up for so long, as two straight SEC losses have shown. Now add in the losses of starting CBs Myles Jones and Brian George for the season and a collapse looks like it is on the verge of happening. Tide QB Brice Young (17 TD passes, two INTs) continues to settle in and to live up to the hype. Would like to see this Tide defense buckle down a little more to be convinced this is a better team than Georgia. But that should not be an issue against the low-scoring Aggies.
Last week vs. spread: 5-1
Season to date vs. spread: 22-8
Home team in CAPS