The Locksmith's Pick Six: Bowl Games
After a second straight winning regular season against the spread — 52-36-1 —the Locksmith is taking his best shot at following up on the plus side in the postseason as well despite a limited bowl slate.
So many key players have opted out—or have been declared out due to COVID-19 protocols—that it's getting tough to keep track of who is playing and who isn't. Most affected this bowl season are Florida and North Carolina, who will be missing several standout offensive players for their matchups.
And Auburn is playing with an interim head coach.
It's as messy a year as ever for predicting bowl games. But here goes anyway:
Oklahoma over Florida, giving 3 (Cotton Bowl)
The line shifted from Florida being a two-point favorite to this after the Gators’ top three wide receivers were listed as out, including star Kadarius Toney. Good luck to Kyle Trask keeping pace here against an improved Oklahoma defense while Spencer Rattler shreds Florida’s accommodating defense.
Georgia over Cincinnati, giving 7 (Peach Bowl)
The key here for Georgia is motivation. Will this team have any? It’s always an issue for the Bulldogs in a non-championship setting. But QB J.T. Daniels has completely changed the look of this offense, though he will have to overcome the absence this game of star OL Eric Stokes, who has opted out. Dawgs defense is as solid as ever. Have not been impressed by the AAC this bowl season nor the Bearcats down the stretch.
Iowa State over Oregon, giving 4½ (Fiesta Bowl)
Two reasons to think the Cyclones will extend their breakout season. One is the huge advantage they have at quarterback. The other is that the Pac-12 was exceedingly mediocre and the Ducks were a perfect reflection of that. Iowa State has faced a wide enough variety of offenses not to be affected by whatever Oregon and Tyler Shough throws at them. And if Shough is throwing it you can expect it to be off the mark.
Notre Dame over Alabama, taking 20 (Rose Bowl)
Yes, we all saw what Clemson did to the Irish with Trevor Lawrence back at the controls. But is this Alabama defense as good as Clemson’s? It’s hard to tell any more. Irish have plenty of weapons and should be able to score, though keeping pace with the Tide is almost impossible. Not predicting an upset here, just a closer game than this spread indicates. One of these big games the Irish have to figure out a way not to get blown out. Maybe here.
Clemson over Ohio State, giving 7½ (Sugar Bowl)
Want to know why Dabo Swinney really voted Ohio State No. 11 on his Top 25 ballot? Because he doesn’t care what the Buckeyes think, or what extra motivation it might provide. He knows his team is better. Much better. If Clemson picks up where it left off against Notre Dame, the Tigers are the most complete team in the country. Have people also noticed how erratic and uncertain Buckeyes’ QB Justin Fields has been lately?
Texas A&M over North Carolina, giving 7½ (Orange Bowl)
This originally looked like a fun matchup between Carolina’s explosive offense and A&M’s strong defense. Not anymore. Tar Heels’ 1,000-yard RBs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter have opted out, as has WR Dyami Brown. On defense, standout LB Chazz Surratt has also announced he will not play to focus on the NFL Draft. Notre Dame throttled this Carolina offense while it was intact. Aggies, a better defensive team than ND, generally don’t blow out teams but Tar Heels are a shell of what they were. A&M just needs a solid game from QB Kellen Mond to cover this spread.
SEASON TO DATE VS. SPREAD: 52-36-1