The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 12
Where to begin in looking back to last week's results?
Normally that would be an easy question to answer after Texas lost to Kansas -- yes, Kansas -- to extend its losing streak to five. The last time the Longhorns had a losing streak this long was 15 Bevos ago.
But a bad team losing to a worse team was overshadowed by some bizarre in-game coaching that contributed to losses, most notably by Penn State's James Franklin and Miami's Manny Diaz. It's nothing new for either one, but it underscores how good college coaches at the Power 5 level are more scarce than ever.
For some reason, Franklin's name is being floated for other jobs even though he is 10-9 the past two years with an experienced quarterback and an established program. It's at the point now where Penn State might build a statue in Franklin's honor -- just so they can tear it down.
Virginia Tech's Justin Fuente became the latest coaching casualty in a season already teeming with interim guys taking over. Fuente continues a trend that has seen former successful AAC coaches become busts at Power 5 jobs, joining a list that includes Tom Herman, Scott Frost, Chad Morris and Willie Taggart. The jury is still out on Mike Norvell, Geoff Collins and Josh Heupel.
As for what's ahead this week, what exactly does 10-0 Cincinnati have to do to crack the top four of the playoff rankings?
Time is running out and the Bearcats need to make a move. Up next is 8-2 SMU on Saturday at Nippert Stadium.
On to the games:
CINCINNATI over Smu, giving 11 1/2
The Bearcats need to make an impression. What better way to do that than against 8-2 SMU in the final home game for Cincy's 32 seniors on ESPN? That group of seniors includes QB Desmond Ridder, who is 24-0 at home as a starter. Mustangs ended a two-game losing streak by beating UCF last week, with both of their losses this year coming on the road. They're pretty much a one-dimensional team -- QB Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 3,264 yards and 37 TDs -- that lacks a quality win. More times than not, Cincinnati's defense will shut down pass-happy teams like this one. Time for the Bearcats to make a statement.
WISCONSIN over Nebraska, giving 9 1/2
One of the hottest teams in the country vs. one that keeps finding ways to lose. Badgers have won six straight, most in impressive fashion, rank first nationally in total defense and rushing defense and second nationally in passing defense and scoring defense. The unit is so good that it doesn't matter that erratic Graham Mertz is still the QB. Frosh Braelon Allen has taken over as the star on offense anyway, with six straight 100-yard rushing games. Cornhuskers have lost four straight by a combined 24 points, but eventually the constant losing will take a toll -- especially in a game where turnover-prone QB Adrian Martinez is Nebraska's entire offense. Wisconsin's defense has been too dominant for a one-dimensional opponent to succeed.
East Carolina over NAVY, giving 4
Pirates have won three straight since an OT loss to 9-1 Houston on the road, with their offense finally hitting its stride by maximizing the combination of a solid QB (Holton Ahlers) with a rising star at running back (freshman Kenton Mitchell). Overall, ECU averages 30.5 points and 435.5 yards per game, becoming bowl eligible with its sixth win last week. Midshipmen are in the throes of a forgettable season, having lost four of five. They come off a bye but this season remains a learning experience for soph QB Tai Lavatai. Navy's offense averages just 16.5 ppg.
Baylor over KANSAS STATE, taking 1
There's the fear of a Baylor letdown after the upset victory over Oklahoma but there's also the reality that K-State has beaten only the bottom dwellers in the Big 12, with its three losses coming against Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Iowa State. Bears are one of just three Power 5 teams in the country to rank in the top 20 of total offense and total defense, meaning they do not have to rely too heavily on one side of the ball. QB Gerry Bohanon has been solid all year but RBs Abram Smith (1,171 rushing) and Trestan Ebner (641) form the nucleus of ground game that powers this offense. Wildcats QB Skylar Thompson has played his best football of his career during the current four-game winning streak, but the quality of the competition has been suspect. K-State has yet to record a quality win this year despite being 7-3.
BOSTON COLLEGE over Florida State, giving 1 1/2
Love two factors about this game: A warm-weather Florida team coming to New England in late November, when the temps plummet (and their focus is usually on just staying warm), and the ongoing return of BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec. Eagles have won both games since Jurkovec's return from an injury and look alive again on offense with him at the controls. The emergence of RB Pat Garwo III has given the unit balance. Seminoles come off an emotional win against a rival and will be on the road for just the fourth time this year (they're 1-2 away from home). You can picture them packing the bench warmers already in anticipation of the cold.
OKLAHOMA over Iowa State, giving 4
Once a year almost every year the Sooners have a game where they lay an egg. Last week's Baylor game was that. Look for a big bounce back from QB Caleb Williams, who was benched last week, and for this Oklahoma offense overall. Cyclones have two of the best skill players in the Big 12 in QB Brock Purdy and RB Breece Hall, so why are they just 6-4 and coming off a head-scratching loss to Texas Tech? Something is out of synch with Iowa State this year. At Oklahoma, with a snarling group of Sooners waiting, probably isn't the best timing for correcting that.
Last week vs. spread: 2-4
Season to date vs. spread: 39-27
Home team in CAPS