The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 9
The streak is over.
After seven straight weeks of winning records against the spread to start the season, the Locksmith misplaced the key to success by going 2-4 last week.
But at 32-16 vs. the spread for the season, there's no reason to jump off the bandwagon just yet.
This weekend, Michigan travels to Michigan State for a showdown of 7-0 teams, while Florida and Georgia renew the World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party in Jacksonville.
The under-the-radar game to watch (as the AAC slowly slips into obscurity following its defections): 7-0 SMU at 6-1 Houston.
On to the games:
Michigan over MICHIGAN STATE, giving 4 1/2
What's the formula for getting to 7-0: Backload the schedule. Michigan has played a mediocre-at-best schedule to this point, though it has defeated three teams (Wisconsin, Northern Illinois and Western Michigan) currently with winning records. Michigan State, meanwhile, has not beaten a team currently at .500 or better, with its opponents going a combined 19-30 so far. Wolverines will need a little more this game out of QB Cade McNamara, though the running combo of Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins (1.331 yards and 20 TDs combined) has been good enough to carry the offense. Michigan's defensive line, led by future NFL star Aiden Hutchinson, could give Spartans QB Payton Thorne some problems, which probably means MSU will lean heavily on RB Kenneth Walker (997 rushing yards). Michigan's defense is better; Michigan State has a tendency to play in close games against teams it should beat handily.
Iowa over WISCONSIN, taking 3
Wasn't it just two weeks ago that Iowa was No. 2 in the country and in the mix for a Playoff berth? One clunker later and the Hawkeyes seem to be written off by many in the Big Ten. Here's the thing: Their defense is still as good as ever -- draw a line through the blip at Purdue -- and there are no David Bells to contend with on Wisconsin's roster. QB Spencer Petras remains a liability, but it's not as if he has to keep pace with Aaron Rodgers here. Badgers' QB Graham Mertz has been so unreliable that Wisconsin limited him to eight pass attempts in the win over Purdue. The Badgers have recovered from a 1-3 start to be 4-3 and have a strong running game (no surprise) but if Iowa's defense can slow down that ground game the offense has to turn to Mertz. That's a problem. If you're looking for a game with graceful, sleek athletes who can do remarkable things, try another channel. This is a meeting of a couple of traditional plodding Big Ten teams with limited athleticism.
SYRACUSE at Boston College, giving 6
Credit where credit is due: Despite coach Dino Babers' consistent clock management issues and having to bench senior QB Tommy Devito (now in the transfer portal, of course), Syracuse has had a solid season. All three of the Orange's losses -- to Clemson, Wake Forest and Florida State -- have been by three points and the offense boasts a rising star in RB Sean Tucker. The freshman has become Syracuse's offense with 1,060 rushing yards and 10 TDs and 16 catches for two TDs. The dual threat that QB Garreth Shrader presents (592 rushing yards, 12 TDs) has become a problem for opposing defenses as well. Don't like the direction Boston College is headed, with three straight losses and three of its four wins coming at the start of the year against Colgate, UMass and Temple. QB Dennis Grosel, forced into a starting role, has had some turnover issues. Syracuse is 7-1 vs. the spread this year too.
WAKE FOREST over Duke, giving 16 1/2
Demon Deacons escaped a dangerous game at Army last week by erupting for 70 points as QB Sam Hartman (2,063 passing yards, 19 TDs) extended his breakout season. Though Wake has played a pair of too-close-for-comfort games against Louisville and Syracuse, the combination of Hartman and a balanced ground game should allow this offense have its way against a Duke defense allowing 443.3 yards per game. Blue Devils have lost three straight by a combined 83 points and look like they're done for the season. Wake is not Charlotte, North Carolina A&T or Northwestern -- the teams Duke opened the season with to earn its three wins.
AUBURN over Mississippi, giving 3
Tigers have recovered nicely from a slow start to win three of their last four, with the only loss in that span to No. 1-ranked Georgia, in large part because of the improved play of QB Bo Nix. Being home, and having a defensive line that can put some pressure on Matt Corral, is partly why Auburn is favored here. Did we mention Ole Miss' swiss cheese defense? That too. Corral has been superb with 15 TD passes to one interception and also leads the Rebels in rushing -- an over-reliance that can bring as many negatives as positives with it, since he takes a lot of hits. This marks the Rebels' third road game of the season, with Lane Kiffin's team losing at Alabama and then just getting by at Tennessee. Though Auburn likes tempo, this might be a game to rely heavily on RB Tank Bigsby and try to grind things out against a suspect Mississippi defense.
Kentucky at MISSISSIPPI STATE, giving 1 1/2
No need to bail on Kentucky because of one road loss to the nation's No. 1-ranked team. Wildcats' defense is still the second-best in the SEC and had a bye week to prepare for the one-dimensional Bulldogs. Mississippi State has had 403 pass attempts this season (almost all by Will Rogers) compared to 131 rushing attempts. So the focus is singular for a superb Kentucky defense. Wildcats should get their share of points as well, though QB Will Levis has had some interception issues in an otherwise solid season. RB Chris Rodriguez could have a big game against this Bulldogs' defense, which has been spotty at best. Typical of a Mike Leach team is you never know what to expect from MSU, a team that has beaten Texas A&M and lost to Memphis.
Last week vs. spread: 2-4
Season to date vs. Spread: 32-16
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