The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 16
Northwestern over Ohio State, taking 20 (Big Ten championship game in Indianapolis)
Wildcats’ pedestrian offense is a concern, but this is not a good Ohio State defense. So that may help Northwestern pack a little more punch than usual. Buckeyes need to win and win big and pressing to do something like that can be difficult – especially for a team idle for two weeks. Teams coming off extended byes due to COVID-19 protocols have generally seemed to struggle.
Iowa State over Oklahoma, taking 6 (Big 12 championship game in Arlington)
Sooners have won six straight since losing to Iowa State, 37-30, while Cyclones have ripped off five straight wins in large part because QB Brock Purdy has played the best stretch of football of his career over the past four games. ISU has the confidence now to beat Oklahoma, though defeating the Sooners twice in one year is a daunting challenge. Cyclones also have one big advantage in the run game: Breece Hall, maybe the league’s Offensive Player of the Year. OU’s running game has been largely by committee.
Notre Dame over Clemson, taking 10½ (ACC championship game in Charlotte)
Yeah, yeah, Trevor Lawrence is back after being absent the first go around between these two, a game the Irish needed two OTs to prevail in. But Lawrence has had some spotty performances this year and Notre Dame’s defense has generally been solid. It might be argued that ND QB Ian Book is having as good a year as Lawrence too. Clemson may win but this looks like it will be a close game.
Alabama over Florida, giving 17 (SEC championship game in Atlanta)
This is pretty simple really. Alabama is by far the best team in the country with an offense that is almost unstoppable and a defense that can lock down opponents when needed. Gators are too one-dimensional to compete here. Their running game is nonexistent, and their defense has been way too generous all year. All they have is QB Kyle Trask, who needs to throw for 500 yards almost every game for them to have a chance. That means no chance here.
Tulsa over CINCINNATI, taking 14½ (AAC championship game)
Can anyone even remember the last time we saw Cincinnati play (it was Nov. 21)? That has to be a huge concern because it could disrupt the roll the Bearcats were on. Cincy is the better team overall, but Tulsa has been pesky good all year and should finally offer a defensive challenge for QB Desmond Ridder and the Bearcats’ offense. Is there a better LB in the country than Tulsa’s Zaven Collins? He could be a difference maker here.
Texas A&M over TENNESSEE, giving 14
Hesitant to give this many points with the Aggies’ oft-mediocre offense but their defense will smother the Vols tandem of frosh QBs and should give Tennessee’s offense fits all game. A&M knows what it has to do – win big to impress the playoff committee. Look for an inspired performance from QB Kellen Mond to get the Aggies what they need.
LAST WEEK VS. SPREAD: 3-3
SEASON TO DATE VS. SPREAD: 49-33-1
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