The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 1
Hard to believe, but here we are with another college football season underway.
The pressure seems to build every year now -- not for the players and the coaches but for the Locksmith. Three straight winning regular seasons against the spread followed by three straight winning records picking every bowl game against the spread makes for a high bar.
That's why the Locksmith plans on doing his best Javier Sotomayor imitation this season.
So here goes:
ARKANSAS over Cincinnati, giving 6 1/2
Luke Fickell deserves a statue on campus for the job he has done with the Bearcats. Now let's see him try it without QB Desmond Ridder, whose leadership will be missed as much as his production, without first-round CB draft pick Sauce Gardner and without RB Mike Ford. Despite going 9-4 last year (4-4 in the SEC), Arkansas managed to fly under the radar. That won't be the case this year with much-improved QB KJ Jefferson again in charge of the offense. It's always a source of concern when a spread is much lower than you think it should be, but Pig Sooey will lead us to filet mignon here.
Oregon over Georgia, taking 17 1/2 (at Merecedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta)
Not suggesting the Bulldogs should be on upset alert, but let's consider a few variables here. New Oregon head coach Dan Lanning was the defensive coordinator for Georgia's nation-best unit a year ago. So he knows the personnel. New Oregon QB Bo Nix spent four years facing SEC defenses at Auburn and passed for 7,500 yards during that time. This won't be culture shock for him. And as well as Georgia has recruited, it still lost 15 players to the NFL Draft. Oregon also has a linebacker group that rates in the top five in the country. So why not a competitive game here?
Louisville over SYRACUSE, giving 3 1/2
Cards have won seven of eight against Syracuse since joining the SEC including a 41-3 rout last year. Have things changed that much for the two programs? Orange running game is superb with Sean Tucker and QB Garrett Schrader, but Schrader doesn't scare anyone with his passing ability. In games like these you always want to be on the side of the team with the best player on the field. That's Louisville QB Malik Cunningham, who passed for more than 3,000 yards and rushed for more than 1,000 while combining for 39 TDs last year. And he has four O-line starters back. Changing the name of the Carrier Dome to the JMA Wireless Dome won't help Syracuse on the field.
North Carolina State over EAST CAROLINA, giving 10 1/2
With Holton Ahlers back at QB after a breakout season a year ago and his top two receivers returning, this East Carolina offense will be dangerous all year. And the Pirates have been known to be pesky with Power 5 opponents. But this Wolfpack team could be special, with 80 percent of its roster production back from two solid units, the best QB in the ACC (Devin Leary) and wide receivers Thayer Thomas and Devin Carter back. Leary passed for 3,500 yards with 35 TD passes to just four INTs last year and will be surrounded by nine other returning offensive starters. The defense returns seven starters. Underrated Wolfpack coach Dave Doeren has this team poised to make a run at Clemson as the ACC's best.
Houston over UTSA, giving 4
If nothing else, this should be a fun game to watch. Both teams are loaded on offense after 12-2 seasons, but if Houston is going to supplant Cincinnati this year as the AAC's best team -- and maybe run the table -- isn't this a game the Cougars need to win? Houston QB Clayton Tune comes off an excellent 2021 campaign and UTSA QB Frank Harris comes off a record-breaking one, but the Cougars have more talent on both sides. This one could get wild but look for Houston to prevail in a shootout. After all, isn't the best team in the AAC supposed to beat the best team from Conference USA -- especially if it has designs on being this year's Cincinnati?
Byu over SOUTH FLORIDA, GIVING 12
With QB Jaren Hall back and Cal transfer Chris Brooks looking like a good fit to fill a gaping hole at RB, along with an O-line that could be one of the better ones BYU has had in a while, the Cougars look poised for another solid season. During last year's 10-3 season, BYU went 4-1 on the road, so playing USF in a mostly-empty stadium shouldn't be an issue. The Bulls come off a 2-10 season and are clinging to the hope that Baylor transfer Gerry Bohanan will be a major upgrade at QB, but this team is still a year or two away from even thinking about breaking the .500 mark. USF was just 2-4 at home last year. There really is no homefield advantage here.
Home team in CAPS
In This Article (1)
