The Locksmith's Pick Six: Championship Week
We've finally arrived at championship week, and if you had Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC as the top four teams for the playoffs back in August, kudos. Not many people did -- and the Locksmith would venture to say no one did. At least not on the record publicly.
The consensus opinion seems to be that unbeatens Georgia, Michigan and TCU will be playoff-bound no matter how they fare in their league title games. Not so 11-1 USC, which has to beat Utah in Friday's Pac-12 championship game to earn its spot in the playoffs. Utah handed the Trojans their only loss on Oct. 15, converting a game-winning 2-point conversion in a 43-42 victory.
If USC falters, Ohio State is waiting.
On to the games:
USC over Utah, giving 2 1/2 (Pac-12 championship game, Las Vegas)
From this vantage point, it looks like the Trojans are firing hot -- with the defense getting into the act last week to throttle Notre Dame. Offensively, Caleb Williams & Co. have been unstoppable, with Williams throwing for five TD pass (with no interceptions) in the 43-42 loss to the Utes on Oct. 15. Utah's usually stout defense was shredded for 556 yards that game. Don't see Cameron Rising and Utah keeping pace this time. The Trojans look like a much more complete team than they were on Oct. 15.
TCU over Kansas State, giving 2 1/2 (Big 12 championship game, Arlington)
The line seems to be a tad suspicious, but K-State did have an 18-point lead over the Horned Frogs in an eventual 38-28 loss on Oct. 23 in Fort Worth. Will Howard played QB for the Wildcats that game, and he will likely get the assignment again with Adrian Martinez still questionable with a leg injury. Howard has been a solid fill-in, with K-State winning six of his seven starts, and the Wildcats' only three losses have been to Tulane, TCU and Texas (combined records 30-6). But TCU has navigated an unbeaten season for a reason: The Horned Frogs find ways to win. It's a dangerous combination that opposing defenses have to contend with: QB Max Duggan has thrown for 3,070 yards and has a 29-to-3 touchdown-to-interception rate, with RB Kendre Miller having rushed for 1,260 yards and 16 TDs. Hard to see TCU faltering here.
LSU over Georgia, taking 17 1/2 (SEC championship game, Atlanta)
As maddeningly inconsistent as LSU can be, this seems like too fat a line for a Georgia team that was less-than-impressive in wins over Missouri and Kentucky. Say this for QB Stetson Bennett: He's a winner. But he also has six interceptions to just 16 touchdowns this season and Georgia's defense faces a huge challenge in Tigers QB Jayden Daniels, a dynamic playmaker who has passed for 2,566 yards and leads the team in rushing with 824 yards (and 11 TDs). LSU has talent, and you know Brian Kelly will have his team ready to play after last week's embarrassing loss at Texas A&M. LSU really has nothing to lose, either, since the Tigers can't make the playoffs. They can put a scare into Georgia.
Tulane over UCF giving 4 (AAC championship game, New Orleans)
Not only did Tulane land a spot in the league title game, it earned homefield advantage as well. You can argue that's not a big deal, since UCF beat the Green Wave at Tulane on Nov. 12 (38-31), with QB John Rhys Plumlee having the game of his life, passing for 132 yards and a score and rushing for 176 and two TDs. But that was then and this is now, and the now for UCF is that the past two games the Golden Knights lost to Navy and then needed a miracle touchdown grab in the final seconds to beat 1-11 USF. Tulane QB Michael Pratt was solid in the first meeting between the teams (236 yards passing, three TD passes, no interceptions) and star RB Tyrae Spears rushed for 130 yards. But the Green Wave's defense faltered that day -- and sure looked solid again in the 27-24 victory at Cincinnati in the season finale.
Clemson over North Carolina, giving 7 1/2 (ACC championship game, Charlotte)
It appears that freshman QB Drake Maye -- sensational the first 10 games as he emerged as a Heisman candidate -- has hit the wall for the Tar Heels. Maye threw for a season-low 202 yards in a loss to Georgia Tech two games ago (he's the team's leading rusher as well and managed just 13 rushing yards) then was held to 232 passing yards in an OT loss to N.C. State. So the guy who has passed for 35 TDs with five interceptions has one TD pass and two interceptions combined the past two games. And if the Tar Heels don't have Maye lighting up opposing defenses, they don't stand a chance with a defense ranked 117th nationally overall. It's so bad that even Clemson QB D J Uiagelelei should take advantage of it. RB Will Shipley definitely will.
Michigan over Purdue, giving 17 (Big Ten championship game, Indianapolis)
Purdue has lost to Syracuse, Wisconsin and Iowa -- three mediocre-at-best teams -- with Minnesota and Illinois (by a combined 17 points) the only "quality" wins on the schedule. Everyone saw Michigan's potential at Ohio State last week. Mistake-prone Purdue QB Aiden O'Connell (11 interceptions) has not faced a defense this good. Forget Purdue's reputation as a giant killer in this game. Looks like this one will be ugly.
Last week vs. spread: 4-2
Season to date vs. spread: 37-40-1
