The Locksmith Pick Six: Week 11
The slump is getting serious. Much Too serious for the Locksmith's liking.
A 2-4 showing last week, extending the slump to 7-11 the past three weeks, drops the overall record vs. the spread to 37-23.
So it's on to the KISS theory: Keep It Simple, Stupid. No weighty analysis this week. No over-thinking. Just quick-hitting insights on games that just feel right.
It's a good, solid overall slate of games on Saturday, topped by Oklahoma at Baylor, though some of the luster of that one was removed with the Bears' loss last week.
On to the games and the simplicity:
PENN STATE over Michigan, taking 1 1/2
Cannot trust Jim Harbaugh in a big game that matters -- especially on the road. Going with the team that will put the best player on the field: Penn State and WR Jahan Dotson.
Texas A&M over MISSISSIPPI, giving 2 1/2
Defense wins championships, right? The Aggies play it and play it well. Ole Miss does not. We're starting to see Jimbo Fisher's squad hit its stride despite limitations on offense.
Houston over TEMPLE, giving 24 1/2
Here's all you need to know about this one: Houston has won eight straight and has scored 40 or more in six of those games. Temple has been outscored 180-24 its past four games.
Arkansas over LSU, giving 2 1/2
Love the bounce-back effort by the Razorbacks last week against Mississippi State. This is a solid team. Thinking LSU, no with uncertainty at QB in addition to its myriad other issues, spent itself just trying to stay competitive with Alabama last week.
TENNESSEE over Georgia, taking 20
Vols' offense faces a daunting task against this Georgia defense, but their run game -- and the play of QB Hendon Hooker -- gives them a chance to crack that unyielding unit. Homefield advantage is significant here, too. Not predicting an upset, just a more competitive game than this line would suggest.
Iowa State over TEXAS TECH, giving 10 1/2
Cyclones are still angling for a spot in the Big 12 title game after winning four of the past five, looking like a team that is finally ready to peak. Not sure how the Red Raiders will react to new coach Sonny Cumbie, but if the talent isn't there what can a new coach do? Tech's defense was shredded in embarrassing fashion by Oklahoma.
Last week vs. spread: 2-4
Season to date vs. spread: 37-23
Home team in CAPS