The Locksmith's Pick Six For Week 5
Where to begin this weekend? With Arkansas-Georgia? Ole Miss-Alabama? Cincinnati-Notre Dame? Or even Florida-Kentucky?
It's one of those college football Saturdays where we find out which teams can keep the playoffs in their sights.
From a prognostication standpoint this is the most challenging Saturday of the season so far. In the what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world of investment wagering the Locksmith treads cautiously into this slate of games knowing that four consecutive winning weekends mean nothing if he can't produce another successful showing.
On to the games:
Michigan over WISCONSIN, taking 2
The line is weird. Wolverines are unbeaten, Badgers are a turnover-plagued dumpster fire -- and yet Wisconsin is a two-point favorite? This is where we find out if Michigan QB Cade McNamara can carry this team in the absence of a running game, because the one constant throughout Wisconsin's poor start has been a suffocating run defense (Notre Dame squeezed out nine rushing yards against the Badgers last week). If RBs Blake Corum and Hassan Haskins (a combined 797 yards rushing with 13 TDs) can't put a dent in this Wisconsin rush defense the burden falls to McNamara. This much we do know: The Badgers will offer help, having committed nine turnovers so far, with QB Graham Mertz suffering two pick sixes against the Irish. He had two picked off in the end zone against Penn State.
BOISE STATE over Nevada, giving 6 1/2
Broncos look ready to assert themselves as the team to beat in the Mountain West along with Fresno, routing a solid Utah State last week after a one-point loss at Oklahoma State. Count on passes aplenty in this one, since Boise has an anemic running game and because Wolf Pack QB Carson Strong has thrown for 955 yards and seven TDs so far. He's not mobile but Boise's pass rush has been ineffective, so that's a wash. Broncos are tied for first in the country with an average of three turnovers forced a game and QB Hank Bachmeier (1,132 passing yards, seven TD passes) has historically been better on the blue turf. Boise has won 16 of the past 17 meetings. Nevada comes off a bad loss to Kansas State, too.
ALABAMA over Mississippi, giving 14 1/2
Is it just me or are the sharpies in Vegas pleading with you to take Ole Miss with this line? Yes, QB Matt Corral has been great -- 997 passing yards, nine TDs, 0 INTs, five rushing TDs. But the competition, especially from an opposing defense standpoint, has been lacking. Tide had their wake-up call in a two-point win at Florida, where QB Bryce Young faced and passed a major road test against a quality opponent. He then led the offense to 606 yards against Southern Miss last week. You know Nick Saban wants to keep Lane Kiffin in his place here, with Alabama able to cover this spread (barely) in a 63-48 win at Ole Miss last year. Tide's firepower is the real thing. Ole Miss and Corral have to prove they are more than a byproduct of a weak schedule.
Cincinnati over NOTRE DAME, taking 2
A deep dive into the Irish's 41-13 win against Wisconsin last week shows this: a 13-10 fourth quarter deficit until two pick sixes in the final 2:30 and a 96-yard kickoff return for a score. The point: Based on everything we have seen from Notre Dame it seems as if the Irish are vulnerable to a good team since they have spent much of the season on the brink of a loss. The Bearcats are definitely quality, and having a leader at QB like Desmond Ridder makes a difference, especially in a tough environment. Cincy can and will score. Even with QB Jack Coan recovered from a leg injury, the Irish face some challenges against this Cincy defense. Love how the Bearcats showed grit in rallying for a 38-24 victory at Indiana earlier this season when things didn't go their way for almost three quarters.
OKLAHOMA STATE over Baylor, giving 3 1/2
The winner of this showdown between 4-0 teams suddenly emerges as the main threat to Oklahoma in the Big 12. Baylor opened some eyes by beating Iowa State last week -- though the Cyclones appear to be out of sorts this year -- and QB Gerry Buchanon has been impressive with seven TDs and no interceptions while completing 73 percent of his passes. Bears RB Abram Smith, who has rushed for 413 yards, is averaging 7.2 yards per carry. There's always the concern that OSU coach Mike Gundy will pull some incredibly dumb coaching move in a big game, but the Cowboys have already secured a quality win at Boise and then manhandled Kansas State last week -- and they're home. OSU needs QB Spencer Sanders to be as good as he was last week when he threw for 344 yards and two TDs and ran for another. Cowboys do have a versatile threat in RB Jaylen Warren to lean on, too.
Western Michigan over BUFFALO, giving 6 1/2
What's the fun of picking games if you can't take a stab at a MAC game every now and then? This one gets attention because of the last meeting between the teams, in 2017: a 71-68 WMU win in seven OTs. Broncos have already beaten Pitt on the road and manhandled San Jose State, one of last year's darlings, in a 23-3 rout last week. QB Kaleb Eleby (902 passing yards, seven TDs, no interceptions) has had a breakout year while RBs Sean Tyler and La'Darius Jefferson have combined for 556 rushing yards and eight TDs. Run-heavy Bulls are not up to the quality of recent Buffalo teams, with QB Kyle Vantrease having thrown just two TD passes so far. The MAC's two best WRs square off here: Buffalo's Quian Williams and WMU's Corey Crooms.
Last week vs. spread: 4-2
Season to date vs. spread: 17-7
Home team in CAPS