The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 13
It's time to get serious about the college football playoffs -- and there's no better time than rivalry week.
Expect a shakeup, perhaps a major one, in next week's college football rankings, depending on what happens on Saturday.
We do know this: There will be at least one less unbeaten team after No. 3 Michigan travels to face No. 2 Ohio State in a showdown of 11-0 squads.
Can 10-1 USC continue in its bid to crack the top four and become a playoff team? The Trojans did their part at UCLA last week but need another peak performance when Notre Dame visits on Saturday. Then it's on to the Pac-12 championship game for Lincoln Riley's crew.
No. 4 TCU doesn't figure to face much of a test against Iowa State, with No. 1 Georgia taking on Georgia Tech in a game the Bulldogs should handle easily.
Clemson, still clamoring for playoff respect, closes its regular season at home against South Carolina, which last week knocked out Tennessee from playoff consideration.
On to the picks:
Michigan over OHIO STATE, taking 7 1/2
This one comes with a caveat: RB Blake Corum needs to have recovered from the injury that sidelined him for all but one carry in the second half last week against Illinois. He's arguably the best running back in the country -- and the best way for the Wolverines to keep possession and force C.J. Stroud and the Buckeyes' explosive offense into sideline spectators. Michigan can compete with Ohio State in the trenches but likely can't win a high-scoring game. And the Wolverines will probably see the "good" Stroud. The Heisman hopeful has been inconsistent at times this year. That's where the nation's No. 1-ranked defense will have to be on its game.
FLORIDA STATE over Florida, giving 9 1/2
These two appear to be passing each other while headed in different directions. Seminoles have won four straight games by 25 points or more since a three-game losing skid to N.C. State, Clemson and Wake Forest (all ranked at the time) by a combined 18 points. Much of the recent success is due to the vastly improved play of QB Jordan Travis. Gators are basically a one-man team -- QB Anthony Richardson is it -- and managed just 45 rushing yards in a loss to Vanderbilt last week. Florida got to six wins in large part with wins over 1-10 USF, Eastern Washington and a bad Texas A&M team.
KANSAS STATE over Kansas, giving 12
It's pretty simple for the Wildcats: Win here and they're in the Big 12 championship game for a rematch with TCU. The encouraging thing for K-State is that the offense has shown it can be effective even without QB Adrian Martinez, with Will Howard proving to be a more-than-capable replacement. Howard passed for 294 yards and two TDs and ran for another in last week's 48-31 win at West Virginia. Look into K-State's 8-3 record and you see this: The losses have been to 9-2 Tulane, 7-4 Texas and 11-0 TCU by a combined 24 points. Since starting 5-0 and becoming the nation's darlings, the Jayhawks have gone 1-5. They're reeling because their defense has collapsed.
OREGON STATE over Oregon, taking 3 1/2
Is there a more under-the-radar 8-3 team than Oregon State? Two of the Beavers' three losses have been to USC and Washington -- by a combined six points. Two reasons for the success: The defense is ranked No. 25 overall nationally (No. 19 vs. the run) and OSU is 5-1 since Bend Gulbrandson took over at QB for injured Chance Nolan. Oregon needs to win this to make the Pac-12 championship game, but the Ducks have been in two straight dogfights at home, going 1-1 in them. Still don't trust QB Bo Nix on the road in a difficult environment.
Notre Dame over USC, taking 5
A few reasons make the Irish too tempting to pass up with points: They've won five straight and looking nothing like the team that suffered an inexplicable loss to Stanford; their defense has become dominant (see the Clemson game) and QB Drew Pyne continues to improve, aided by a strong running game. One more thing: USC likes to play close games (four have been decided by six points or less) because their defense can be as bad at times as their offense is dazzling. Not sure there is a more entertaining offense in the country. But this game looks like it could be a close one.
Washington over WASHINGTON STATE, giving 2
Washington is the better team, but here's the concern: If Oregon wins its game seven hours earlier, the 9-2 Huskies are out of the Pac-12 title game. They need an Oregon loss and to win to face USC in the championship game. Will QB Michael Penix, Jr.'s spectacular play this season (3,869 passing yards, 26 TDs) translate into a bad weather game? It has so far. And it's not as if the 7-4 Cougars have a distinct offensive advantage in bad weather. They're 110th nationally in rushing and QB Cameron Ward has been mistake prone.
Last week vs. spread 1-4-1
Season to date vs. spread: 33-38-1
Home team in CAPS
