The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 2

Arkansas Gets Another Test; IS USC Ready To Assert Its Dominance In The Pac-12 As A Parting Gift To The League?

In horse racing parlance, it's called needing a start.

The Locksmith stumbled out of the gate in Week 1, but sometimes it takes a while to get a feel for the rhythm of college football, which has no preseason and now has the added variable of the transfer portal.

But enough with the excuses. Time to tackle Week 2.

South Carolina over ARKANSAS, taking 8 1/2

There's no disputing that Cincinnati is a solid team, but Arkansas looked choppy and less-than-impressive in the opener against the Bearcats despite a good game from QB KJ Jefferson. Gamecocks needed special teams help to pull away from Georgia State, but coach Shane Beamer looks like he has the program heading in the right direction -- almost Arkansas-like in the improvement -- and QB Shane Rattler has a proven track record against good competition that suggests he will improve off his debut last week.

Iowa State over IOWA, taking 3 1/2

Here's hoping Kirk Ferentz sticks with the clunky and inaccurate Spencer Petras at QB, since we've been saying for a while now that a robot would be just as effective running Iowa's offense at the position. More proof came last week, when Petras was 11-for-25 against South Dakota State as the offense produced just three points. It looks like Matt Campbell has found his next solid QB in Hunter Dekkers, with the Cyclones showing nice offensive balance in their opener. This has the makings of a low-scoring game, so the points make for a nice cushion here.  

Virginia over ILLINOIS, taking 4 1/2

For all of the changes at Virginia -- a new head coach in Tony Elliott and new offensive and defensive coordinators -- there remains one constant that has to haunt the Illini here: QB Brennan Armstrong. He passed for 405 yards and five TDs against Illinois a year ago and is coming off a solid opener. Illini will find out what Syracuse fans learned over the past four years: It's only a matter of time before turnovers plague QB Tommy DeVito. 

Usc over STANFORD, giving 9

Stanford has given USC fits over the years -- going 8-4 against the Trojans since 2009 -- but the Cardinal and the rest of the Pac-12 are about to find out how good the Trojans can be with a real coach. QB Caleb Williams turned in a solid debut for USC, hooking up twice with Biletnikoff winner Addison Jordan for TDs, and he obviously knows what Lincoln Riler expects from him. Stanford opened against Colgate to start the year. The college, not the toothpaste. About the same thing, though.  

WEST VIRGINIA over Kansas, giving 13 1/2

A key point to picking winners against the spread: Identify bad teams. Kansas still qualifies as that. Moutaineers were a fluke pick six away from beating Pittsburgh on the road last week, with QB JT Daniels showing poise despite being harassed in the pocket all game by the Panthers' dominant front four. Kansas does not have a front four like that, which should mean a big day for Daniels.

BYU over Baylor, giving 4

Bears dominated this meeting a year ago -- rushing for 303 yards and totaling 534 overall -- but the Cougars now get them at the higher elevation of Provo and with a significant edge at QB because of Jalen Hall. BYU opened with a win on the road against USF. Baylor stayed home for an exhibition against Albany. It sure seems one approach is better preparation for this future Big 12 showdown.  

Last week vs. spread: 2-4

Season to date vs. spread: 2-4

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