The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 3
The Locksmith is slowly getting his mojo back.
But let's be honest: Who saw the Sun Belt Conference pulling off upsets at Notre Dame, at Texas A&M and at Nebraska on the same day? And who saw that combined with Kansas winning a conference road game to open 2-0 for the first time since 2011?
It's a reminder that in college football crazy things happen -- and you have to proceed accordingly when wagering.
On to week 3:
AUBURN over Penn State, taking 3
Penn State has faced the tougher preparation for this, but it's still James Franklin coaching in a big spot. How has that been going the past two years-plus? Tigers are looking for payback from last year and their power running game, with bruiser Tank Bigsby leading the way, can play ball control and shorten the game. Hard to pass on an SEC team getting points at home.
TEXAS A&M over Miami, giving 5 1/2
The Locksmith is probably in the minority here, but this is the thinking: The Aggies aren't as bad as people seem to think and Miami isn't as good as those same people believe. Not yet anyway. Hurricanes need to produce that signature win before being declared back. Love Tyler van Dyke as a QB but there is a general philosophy in play here: Never bet an ACC team on the road against an SEC team unless it's Clemson. We're sticking to that. Maybe a change to Max Johnson at QB jumpstarts the Aggies offense.
Texas Tech over N.C. State, taking 10
This goes against the Locksmith's preseason believe that the Wolfpack can threaten Clemson for ACC supremacy. But what would this line be if East Carolina makes that extra point instead of missing it in N.C. State's opener? A pick'em perhaps? Wolfpack are brimming with talent but have to see that translate into impressive play. Red Raiders showed grit in a double OT win against Houston last week and dual threat QB Donovan Smith could give the Wolfpack defense fits. Just seems like a big number for a team that has played well vs. one that has yet to live up to expectations,
Kansas over HOUSTON, taking 9
Okay, the Locksmith is buying stock in the Jayhawks now. Maybe they aren't as terrible as we're accustomed to them being. The combination of Lance Leipold being a good coach and the transfer portal appears to have made a difference, with the Jayhawks rallying from three different 14-point deficits to win at West Virginia. Kansas is averaging 55 ppg, Houston's defense is shoddy, and the Cougars don't have much of a running game. And how motivated are the Cougars after that deflating home loss to Texas Tech eliminated any potential playoff hopes? This looks like a close, high-scoring game. Rock chalk.
Byu over OREGON, taking 3 1/2
Can't abandon BYU after the Cougars covered for the Locksmith the first two weeks of the season. Win this one and BYU's only real remaining obstacle to a playoff berth is Arkansas. A playoff caliber team wins this game. Uncertain status of injured star WRs Gunner Romney and Puka Nacua is a concern but BYU has become a physical, defense-oriented team that doesn't have to score in bunches to win. Oregon's big-game track record isn't the best recently. Neither is the big-game track record of QB Bo Nix, who never gets the benefit of the doubt again after that embarrassing performance at Georgia.
Oklahoma over NEBRASKA, giving 11 1/2
Unless Nebraska brought in 11 better defensive players in addition to firing Scott Frost, there's a chance of the Cornhuskers' defense getting steamrolled here by Dillon Gabriel & Co. Nebraska has a potent offense, but it can't keep pace with how bad its defense is. Have a feeling the Sooners will continue to improve under Brent Venables as the season goes on. They're still in a transition process. But 55-24 is a possibility here.
Last week vs. spread: 3-3
Season to date vs. spread: 5-7
Home team in CAPS
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