The Locksmith's Pick Six: Week 9
How do you make six go into four?
That's the question the College Football Playoff selection committee will be facing when the first playoff rankings are released on Tuesday.
Six unbeaten teams remain. Four playoff spots are up for grabs.
Even discounting -- for now -- TCU, which is clearly the unbeaten outlier, how will the top four shake out with Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Georgia and Clemson?
It's all subject to change on a weekly basis, of course, especially since Ohio State and Michigan will meet, as will Tennessee and Georgia.
But please -- please -- let's not have three SEC teams in the four-team playoffs this year. Is that asking too much?
On to the games:
SYRACUSE over Notre Dame, giving 2 1/2
Dino Babers' squad proved its legitimacy last week with a near-miss at Clemson, but here's the question, coach: Why would you limit the best running back in the ACC (Sean Tucker) to five carries in that game, especially when the Orange had an early lead before a fourth-quarter letdown? Tucker alone can carry SU to a win here against a Notre Dame team that has yet to impress anyone. Irish didn't even cover against mediocre-at-best UNLV last week.
Ohio State over PENN STATE, giving 15
You know the Buckeyes are fully aware that this is a chance to stake a claim for No. 1 when the CFP rankings are released on Tuesday. You also know that the RB combination of Miyan Williams and TreVoyn Henderson are keenly aware that Penn State -- lacking its usual size and toughness on both sides of the line -- yielded 418 rushing yards to Michigan. Ohio State is getting irritated by the talk that its dazzling offensive and defensive stats are the byproduct of a weak schedule. This is a big game, too, which means the Nittany Lions are at a disadvantage on the sidelines.
Oklahoma State over KANSAS STATE, taking 1 1/2
QB Spencer Sanders is having a terrific year for the Cowboys, and you just have to get used to a simple reality about this team: They can't stop anyone, but teams can't stop Sanders & Co. either. That has been the formula to 6-1, with the only loss in double OT to TCU. K-State QB Adrian Martinez left last week's game with an undisclosed injury, and his status is uncertain. He's the key to the Wildcats' offense.
SOUTH CAROLINA over Missouri, giving 2 1/2
Kudos to Shane Beamer for having the Gamecocks back in the Top 25 -- especially since QB Spencer Rattler has been erratic all season. But he did rush for 168 yards last week in a win against Texas A&M, which followed a win over Kentucky, and Rattler does have a go-to weapon in RB MarShawn Lloyd. Missouri was held to 76 yards of offense in the second half of last week's 17-14 win over Vanderbilt. To this point, the Tigers' wins have come against Louisiana Tech, Abeline Christian and Vandy.
NORTH CAROLINA over Pittsburgh, giving 3
Yes, the Tar Heels' defense is a disaster. But it doesn't matter because QB Drake Maye is having one of those rare seasons (2,283 passing yards, 24 TD passes) and the offense can be unstoppable at times. UNC is a quiet 6-1 too. The key here is protecting Maye against an aggressive and effective Pitt defense, which is all the Panthers have going for them at this point, since Kedon Slovis has been exceedingly mediocre at QB. Pitt's four wins have come against West Virginia, Western Michigan, Rhode Island and Virginia Tech. Hardly confidence inspiring.
Tcu over WEST VIRGINIA, giving 7 1/2
Just as Saturday is a chance for Ohio State to make a statement, it's a chance for the unbeaten Horned Frogs -- the comeback kings of college football -- to remind the committee they deserve some attention. QB Max Duggan (19 TD passes, one INT) has been sensational all year, and now he faces a defense that gave up 325 passing yards last week to Texas Tech. QB JT Daniels has been error prone all season and the Mountaineers' running game tends to disappear for long stretches.
Last week vs. spread: 3-3
Season to date vs. spread: 21-27
Home team in CAPS
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