Breaking down the SEC East, SEC West: Who controls their destiny?

I’ve always believed that October for college football is like Saturday for a major championship in golf.

It’s moving day.

You don’t win football championships in October but you do put yourself in a POSITION to win. And so it is with the SEC East and SEC West as we get ready to close out the month.

There are, in my opinion, six teams that still have a mathematical chance of winning the East or West divisional championship. Some of these six control their own destiny—win out and they are in Atlanta. Some teams need to win the rest of their games AND get some help.

So, with five Saturdays left in the 2018 regular season, here is a breakdown of the six teams that can get to the SEC Championship game and how they get there.

[membership level="0"] The rest of this article is available to subscribers only - to become a subscriber click here.[/membership] [membership]

BREAKING DOWN THE SEC EAST

FLORIDA (6-1, 4-1 SEC)

SEC games remaining: Saturday vs. Georgia (Jacksonville); Nov. 3 vs. Missouri; Nov. 10 vs. South Carolina.

Non-conference games remaining: Nov. 17 vs. Idaho; Nov 24 at Florida State.

Path to Atlanta: Florida does not control its destiny. The Gators have to win their final three conference games and hope that Kentucky (4-1 SEC) loses down the stretch. Kentucky holds the tie-breaker over Florida by virtue of its 27-16 win over the Gators on Sept. 8. If Florida beats Georgia, it becomes a strong favorite because its final two SEC games are both in The Swamp.

GEORGIA (6-1, 4-1)

SEC games remaining: Saturday vs. Florida (Jacksonville); Nov. 3 at Kentucky; Nov. 10 vs. Auburn.

Non-conference games remaining: Nov. 17 vs. UMass; Nov. 24 vs. Georgia Tech.

Path to Atlanta: Georgia controls its own destiny. If the Bulldogs win their final three conference games they will go to the SEC championship game for the second straight year. Saturday’s meeting with Florida in Jacksonville is, for all intents and purposes, an elimination game. The winner moves on. The loser is out. If Georgia beats Florida and Kentucky, it could actually afford to lose to Auburn and still go to Atlanta.

KENTUCKY (6-1, 4-1)

SEC games remaining: Saturday at Missouri; Nov. 3 vs. Georgia; Nov. 10 at Tennessee

Non-conference games remaining: Nov. 17 vs. Middle Tennessee; Nov. 24 at Louisville.

Path to Atlanta: Kentucky controls its destiny. Win the final three conference games and the Wildcats will reach the SEC championship game for the first time in history. Kentucky already has the tie-breaker over Florida and a win over Georgia next week would give the Wildcats the tie-breaker over the Bulldogs. Therefore, Kentucky can actually afford another loss if it beats Georgia and Florida loses again.

BREAKING DOWN THE SEC WEST

ALABAMA (8-0, 5-0)

SEC games remaining: Nov. 3 at LSU; Nov. 10 vs. Mississippi State; Nov. 24 vs. Auburn.

Non-conference games remaining: Nov. 17 vs. The Citadel

Path to Atlanta: Obviously, No. 1 Alabama controls its destiny with three conference games remaining. The Crimson Tide could clinch the division as early as next week if it beats LSU and Texas A&M (which lost to Alabama on Sept. 22) loses another game.

LSU (7-1, 4-1)

SEC games remaining: Nov. 3 vs. Alabama, Nov. 10 at Arkansas; Nov. 24 at Texas A&M

Non-conference games remaining: Nov. 17 vs. Rice.

Path to Atlanta: LSU controls its destiny. If the Tigers win their final three conference games they will go back to the SEC championship game for the first time since 2011. Lose to Alabama and the Tigers will be all but eliminated.

TEXAS A&M (5-2, 3-1)

SEC games remaining: Saturday at Mississippi State; Nov. 3 at Auburn; Nov. 10 vs. Ole Miss; Nov. 24 vs. LSU.

Non-conference games remaining: Nov. 17 vs. UAB.

Path to Atlanta: Because of its 45-23 loss to Alabama on Sept. 22, Texas A&M must win its final four conference games while the Crimson Tide must lose two of its final three conference games. That is a long shot at best. A loss at Mississippi State on Saturday all but eliminates the Aggies.

[/membership]