Should No. 4 Georgia be on Upset Alert vs. Texas A&M? Can LSU cover 43 1/2 ?
Well, they always remember what you do in November and Nov. 16, dear readers, gave us the best record (5-0-1) your humble scribe has had in many a season. Specifically:
The tie was LSU going on the road to beat Ole Miss 58-37, which was right on the number.
We picked Georgia to win at Auburn and cover three points and the Bulldogs won by seven (21-14).
We picked Alabama to cover the 21 against Mississippi State and they did it (38-7) despite the heartbreaking loss of Tua Tagovailoa (hip) for the rest of the season.
We picked Florida to cover seven at Missouri and the Gators won 23-6.
Kentucky covered 10 at Vanderbilt, winning 38-24, and Texas A&M easily covered 11 at home against South Carolina (30-6).
So that puts us 16 games over .500 (43-27-2) against the spread.
Okay. We have three Saturdays left. Let’s get on with the picks. Because there are only three conference games in the SEC this week, we’re going to dip our toe into the Big Ten and Big 12.
The game: Texas A&M (plus 13 ½) at Georgia, 3:30 p.m., CBS.
The winner: Georgia.
The score: Georgia 31, Texas A&M 17.
The skinny: Georgia has already locked up a trip to the SEC championship game on Dec. 7. But if the Bulldogs want to get to the College Football Playoffs they need to keep winning and go into the SEC championship game at 11-1. Georgia is coming off a tough 21-14 win at Auburn and could be ripe for a letdown. Texas A&M (7-3), whose losses are to No. 3 Clemson, No. 5 Alabama, and No. 15 Auburn, finishes its season with road trips to No. 4 Georgia and No. 1 LSU. Yikes. The weather forecast calls for 100 percent chance of rain in Athens at kickoff.
I’m going to pick Georgia to cover the 13 ½ but I don’t feel great about it.
The game: Tennessee (plus 4 ½ ), at Missouri, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network.
The winner: Tennessee.
The score: Tennessee 21, Missouri 17
The skinny: After a 5-1 start, Missouri (5-5) has lost four straight games and there is no mystery why. The Missouri offense is simply not functioning. The Tigers have scored only 27 points in those four losses and have gone 30 possessions without a touchdown. Some of it has been because quarterback Kelly Bryant has been banged up. Tennessee (5-5), meanwhile, has righted the ship since a 1-4 start, winning four of its last five. The Vols need a win outright in COMO to become bowl eligible. They’ll get it.
The game: Arkansas (plus 43 ½ ) at LSU, 7:30 p.m., SEC Network.
The winner: Arkansas.
The score: LSU 45, Arkansas 7.
The skinny: As expected, LSU (10-0) came out flat last week at Ole Miss and gave up over 400 yards rushing. But the Tigers had 700 total yards of their own and won the game by 21 points (58-37). LSU, ranked No. 1, returns home for the first time since Oct. 26 and a win against a bad Arkansas team (2-8) clinches a spot in the SEC championship game against Georgia on Dec. 7. Arkansas will be playing its first game under interim head coach Barry Lunney, Jr., who took over when Chad Morris was fired. LSU wins easily but doesn’t cover the 43 1/2.
The game: Penn State (18) at Ohio State, Noon, FOX.
The winner: Ohio State.
The score: Ohio State 31, Penn State 10.
The skinny: The winner is headed to the Big Ten championship game on Dec. 7. No. 2 Ohio State (10-0) has looked like the most complete team of the season with quarterback Justin Fields leading the nation’s top scoring offense (51.1 ppg) and defensive end Chase Young, perhaps the best college football player in America, back after a two-game suspension. I don’t think the Nittany Lions--or anybody else for that matter--can block this guy. Ohio State also leads the nation in scoring defense (9.8 ppg). Buckeyes win at home and cover.
The game: Michigan at Indiana (plus 9 ½ ), 3:30 p.m., ESPN.
The winner: Indiana.
The score: Michigan 28, Indiana 24.
The skinny: All season long the Michigan faithful has been talking about how badly they wanted to beat Ohio State. And next week the Wolverines will get their chance in Ann Arbor. But before that Michigan (8-2) must go to Indiana (7-3), which took Penn State to the limit last week before falling 34-27. Michigan has been playing well as of late and I think they win this game. But I also think they are looking ahead to Buckeyes and don’t cover.
The game: Texas (plus 6 ½ ) at Baylor, 3:30 p.m., FS1.
The winner: Baylor.
The score: Baylor 35, Texas 28.
The skinny: After blowing a 28-3 lead and losing to Oklahoma 34-31, it will be interesting to see how excited Baylor (9-1) will be to play this game. The Bears should be ready because a win all but guarantees that they get another shot at Oklahoma in the Big 12 championship game. Texas (6-4), which has lost two of its last three games, has really struggled on defense. Baylor gets the win and the cover.