The Next Great Pitcher for the Miami Marlins, Pablo Lopez
For pitchers in the MLB, velocity is king. And if a guy isn’t throwing hundred mile-an-hour fastballs, he better have a lengthy arsenal of crafty breaking balls to lean on. So, it may come as a surprise to some to see Pablo Lopez’s name at the top of MLB’s earned run leaders list.
The Marlins’ fifth-year right-hander has been a pitching lights out this season, boasting the league’s best ERA at 0.39. He’s also tied for the league lead in WHIP at 0.76 and hasn’t allowed a homerun yet in 2022. But with a fastball that averages just under 94 mph and essentially a two-pitch mix, one might wonder how Lopez is keeping a lid on batters this year. While other aces have gone for higher velocities, Lopez’s solution has been to take it slow.
Unlike his teammate, rocket-armed ace Sandy Alcantara, who counts on his 103-mph fastball to neutralize batters, Lopez packs a nasty changeup that leaves batters whiffing in its wake. For those that need a little refresher, the changeup is a pitch that mirrors a fastball in almost every way, except it slows down and dies as it approaches the plate, often fooling batters into early misses.
Lopez’s version averages just over 87 mph and was the fourth most chased of any single pitch by batters in 2021. This year, he’s got hitters grasping at straws as his changeup is clocking a 33 percent CSW% (called strikes + whiffs/ total pitches), which is 8% above the average success rate of his counterparts across the MLB. Hitting focuses on timing and Lopez’s changeup looks so similar to his fastball, that batters are almost always a step too slow or too fast. Opposing batters are only slugging the shifty pitch at a rate of .174, well south of the league standard of .334.
Lopez, who’s spent his entire big-league career in a Marlins jersey, learned to throw his signature pitch from his father at a young age, playing Little League in Venezuela and has been honing it for years. “My dad was the coach, and he didn’t want me to start throwing breaking balls. He said he was going to teach me to throw a slower fastball instead” recalled Lopez. The countless hours he’s spent perfecting his craft are evident in his deadeye pitch placement.
The 6’4” mountain on the mound does employ a sinker (11% of pitches) and cutter (15% of pitches) sparingly, if only to put hitter’s even further on edge. He picks his pitches with the precision of a surgeon, leaving even the most plate-disciplined sluggers unsure of what he’ll fire at them next. Just when they expect his trademark changeup in the bottom corner, he blazes them with a fastball or cutter, high and tight like a military haircut. Not only has this led to 23 strikeouts this season, but also a .227 BABIP (Batting Avg. of Balls in Play) which is a good mark below the league norm of .294. This means that even when his opponents make contact, they rarely make it safely to base.
The Miami ace has displayed incredible pitch control and uses this to squeeze the inside of the box, keeping hitters from getting full extension. Pablo has been painting the corners of strike zones so masterfully this season, that he might consider changing his last name to Picasso.
Lopez added to his impressive 2022 start on Wednesday night as he threw six shutout innings against the Washington Nationals in a 2-1 win. He sat down six Nationals on strikes and only gave up three hits on the way to his third win of the season (3-0). It was a masterclass from Lopez, who continued to work his two-pitch combo to keep Nats batters handcuffed. Jesus Aguilar led the Miami offense, gave a third-inning pitch a one-way ticket out of Nationals Park for his first homerun of the year.
Miami improved to 9-8 on the season after the win, which was their fourth in a row, giving them an early hold on second place in the NL East. Pablo Lopez has undoubtedly been the MLB’s most underrated pitcher of the season so far, not receiving nearly the notoriety of many pitchers with less impressive resumes on the year. That will likely change if he continues to control batters as the season goes on.
His arm has been one of the reasons that Miami is off to their solid start and the young team shows more promise with each outing. Look for Lopez to link up with fellow ace, Alcantara, to lead this loaded bullpen and the Marlins on a playoff push this summer.
