MBB: How Can Huskies Upset Villanova
The Huskies will face the tall task of traveling to Villanova this weekend following a tough home loss to Creighton. UConn will play an angry Wildcats team that comes off of a 10-point loss at Marquette.
In addition to this potentially being a massive resume’-building win for the Huskies, this contest carries heavy implications in the Big East. Villanova enters this game at 9-3 in conference play, which is good enough for second in the Big East. At 6-3, the Huskies are in third place and are in danger of falling as low as seventh with a loss. Dan Hurley’s squad could use an upset win on the road this weekend as it has yet to notch a signature win in 2022.
Here’s how the Huskies can get it done.
They Have to Dominate Inside
To compensate for its lackluster shooting numbers, UConn will have to dominate on the offensive glass as it goes up against a very strong Villanova defense. The Huskies rank second in all of college basketball in offensive rebound rate (38.6%) and they average 38.8 rebounds per game, which ranks fourth in the country. On the other hand, Villanova ranks 107th in the nation in opponents’ offensive rebound rate (27.0%), and 205th in rebounds per game (32.1). UConn must take advantage of Nova’s exploitable front line and create an abundance of second-chance opportunities if it expects to come out of Philly with a W.
Villanova has the edge at guard over most teams in the country with Collin Gillespie (17.1 ppg) and Justin Moore (15.1 ppg), so the Huskies will need impactful performances from their bigs in this battle. Adama Sanogo has been terrific under the rim this season for UConn, ranking 62nd in the country in offensive rebound rate (13.2%). He has a block rate on defense of 8.2% that ranks 58th in the nation and is also averaging 15 points per game on 52.1% shooting. Isaiah Whaley has played a big chunk of the Huskies’ front-court minutes, playing 36% of the team’s minutes at the four this season and 25% of the team’s minutes at the five.
Whaley has been huge for the Huskies this year, ranking 181st in the country in KenPom’s overall offensive efficiency metric (119.0), 158th in effective field-goal percentage (57.8%), and in the nation’s top 250 in offensive rebound rate (9.7%). Whaley had 20 points, six rebounds and four blocks in the Creighton loss earlier this week. The 6-foot-9 tandem of Sanogo and Whaley will have the height advantage over Villanova’s 6-foot-7 front court pairing of Brandon Slater (8.6 ppg) and Jermaine Samuels (10.0 ppg). The 6-foot-9 Tyler Polley also presents a favorable mismatch for the Huskies. The UConn bigs are going to have to take control of the glass and dominate the points in the paint battle to keep the Huskies in this game.
Keeping Nova Off of the Three-Point Line
Although Villanova’s offense is among the elite in the country (sixth in offensive efficiency, 117.9), UConn’s shot defense could feasibly have the edge over the Wildcats. The Huskies’ defense ranks 12th in the country in opponents’ effective field-goal percentage (43.8%) and fourth in terms of opponents’ field-goal percentage on two-pointers (40.6%). Offensively, Villanova ranks 106th in effective field-goal percentage (51.8%) and just 171st in two-point field-goal percentage (49.6%). However, the Huskies have not been good at defending the three this season, allowing teams to shoot 33.9% from deep (206th in NCAA). Villanova has shot well from beyond the arc, to the tune of 36.2% on the season (57th in NCAA). Nova also has a 3PA/FGA ratio of 46.1% (29th highest in NCAA) and 39.3% of its points have come from deep this season (30th highest in NCAA).
If the Huskies can keep the Wildcats off the three-point board and force them into difficult two-point shots, then their defense should have the edge. The numbers say so, at least. But Nova loves to jack up the three-ball, and it shoots a high percentage too. UConn has not fared well when it comes to defending the three, so it will have to play tight perimeter defense on the Wildcats and force them into the paint - where the Huskies have the height advantage and have fared much better defensively this year.
Huskies Must Take Care of the Basketball
Very rarely do you see Villanova turn the ball over. The Wildcats have the 13th best offensive turnover percentage in the country (14.8%). To keep pace in the turnover battle, the Huskies have very little margin for error. UConn ranks 78th in offensive turnover percentage (17.4%) and Villanova ranks 120th in defensive turnover percentage (19.7%). However, Nova had seven steals in a 68-60 win in the one meeting between these two teams last season. Those seven steals were probably one of the bigger reasons why Nova was able to come away with the win last year. The data says the Huskies can take care of the basketball in this matchup, but they will have to do substantially better than they did a year ago, or the turnover battle could get out of hand in the Wildcats’ favor.
It is never easy to beat Villanova on the road, but the Huskies will have to deal with a motivated Wildcats team that comes off a loss. But UConn does have the ability to steal this one if it can play and coach to its strengths. If they can do so, it would be a huge road win for the Huskies who desperately need one. We will see what happens at noon ET on Saturday.
