The 2020-21 Tar Heels Are An Offensive Rebounding Juggernaut

Against Stanford and Texas, Carolina rebounded exactly half of their field goal misses.

Author:
Isaac Schade
Dec 11, 2020 7:12 PM EST

The 2020-21 college basketball season is young. We are still learning a good deal about the identity of teams. Who is overachieving? Who is underachieving? Veteran teams are proving to have better success out of the gate due to the lack of time in the summer and fall. Games are getting canceled or postponed left and right (in the neighborhood of 20 percent of all scheduled games thus far). Arenas are empty.

Everything seems to be different than usual.

But some things never change, and one of them is this:

North Carolina excels at rebounding the basketball. It doesn’t matter if it’s on the defensive or offensive glass, if there’s a missed shot there’s a good chance the Tar Heels are coming down with it.

UNC has once again established itself among the nation’s most relentless and prolific rebounding teams. Per NCAA.com, through games on December 10, here’s where Carolina stands in several of the major rebounding categories:

Total rebounds per game: 48.6 (3^rd in the nation | 1^st amongst major schools)
Rebound margin: +16 (9^th | 2^nd)
Offensive rebounds per game: 17.2 (4^th | 2^nd)
Defensive rebounds per game: 31.4 (T-32^nd | T-8^th)

Clearly, the Tar Heels’ all-around ability to rebound is impressive. But where they really set themselves apart is on the offensive glass.

My two favorite indicators of offensive rebounding success are total offensive rebounding percentage and, a stat I’ve begun to prefer, field goal offensive rebounding percentage.

For those not sure what these percentages represent, let me break it down for you.

Total Offensive Rebounding Percentage

Total offensive rebound percentage measures the percentage of offensive rebounds a team gathers on every one of their missed shots that has a rebound available, whether field goal or free throw.

The formula for deriving total offensive rebound percentage is:

Total Offensive Rebounds / (Total Offensive Rebounds + Opponent Defensive Rebounds).

Field Goal Offensive Rebounding Percentage

I actually prefer field goal offensive rebound percentage over the total, because offensive rebounding on missed field goals is a more reproducible and consistent skill set than offensive rebounds on free throws. This metric measures the percentage of offensive rebounds a team gathers on field goal attempts only.

The formula for deriving field goal offensive rebounding percentage is:

(Total Offensive Rebounds - Free Throw Offensive Rebounds*) / Field Goal Misses.

*this yields “Field Goal Offensive Rebounds”, so the simplified formula is:

Field Goal Offensive Rebounds / Field Goal Misses

UNC’s 2020-21 Offensive Rebounding Percentages

Through five games, Carolina has a total offensive rebounding percentage of 43.4 and a field goal offensive rebounding percentage of 44.8. These numbers are astounding and give the Tar Heels hope, even in a game where they don’t shoot well.

In what is perhaps the most impressive offensive rebounding stat of the young season, against both Stanford and Texas, Carolina rebounded exactly half of their field goal misses (14 of 28 against Stanford, 17 of 34 against Texas). It’s almost difficult to believe, but those two outcomes occurred in back-to-back games.

The only game this season where the Tar Heels haven’t rebounded at least 40 percent of their field goal misses is College of Charleston (37.2 percent).

Given the overwhelming size of Carolina’s frontcourt, the annual rebounding acumen displayed by the Tar Heels, and the willingness of guards and wings to pitch in (Leaky Black is averaging nine rebounds a game over the last four, for example), there is no reason to think this advantage won't continue throughout the season.

Where Carolina needs to get better is at converting these second chances at a higher rate. Additionally, if the Tar Heels can cut down on turnovers, these offensive rebounds will serve the role of “extra possessions advantage” rather than an even-ing out of the possessions lost due to turnovers.

The Tar Heels’ rebounding numbers should only increase after Saturday, when they play North Carolina Central who currently ranks 304^th in total rebounds per game with 28.0.

Here are Carolina’s 2020-21 offensive rebounding numbers broken down by game and type: