Skip to main content

UNC Basketball: Kentucky and Beyond, What to Watch For

The Tar Heels take on Kentucky today in the final non-conference game of the season. What areas does UNC need to still grow in? Let's examine five together.

When the Tar Heels take the court today against Kentucky (2:00pm ET | CBS), it will be the last non-conference game prior to kicking off the 20-game ACC slate.

Carolina is 4-2 all-time in the CBS Sports Classic, the best record among the four schools that annually compete in this event. Kentucky and Ohio State are both 3-3, while UCLA is 2-4.

Although UNC holds the best record, both losses are at the hands of Kentucky. The most recent defeat was in 2018 when the 19th-ranked Wildcats beat the ninth-ranked Tar Heels 80-72.

Perhaps more memorable was the 103-100 victory for Kentucky in 2016 in which Malik Monk and De’Aaron Fox combined to score 71 of Kentucky’s 103 points. Tar Heel fans are undoubtedly more familiar with the Elite 8 revenge game later that season which resulted in “the shot” from Luke Maye.

Here are Carolina’s results from each year of the CBS Sports Classic (AP rankings in parentheses where applicable):

  • 2014 – (24) UNC 82, (12) Ohio State 74
  • 2015 – (11) UNC 89, (22) UCLA 76
  • 2016 – (6) Kentucky 103, (7) UNC 100
  • 2017 – (5) UNC 86, Ohio State 72
  • 2018 – (19) Kentucky 80, (9) North Carolina 72
  • 2019 – UNC 74, UCLA 64

Due to COVID-19’s effects on the season, there was a truncated lead-up to the season and there are fewer non-conference games. Around the country, veteran teams have benefitted from their prior experience, while teams relying on transfers and freshmen are taking longer to become acquainted with each other and their coach’s system.

North Carolina has not been immune to these youthful struggles. The top two student-athletes in minutes played (RJ Davis and Caleb Love), and six of the top ten, are freshmen.

Given these factors, Coach Roy Williams and his staff will certainly have several areas of emphasis in which they hope to see growth moving forward.

What will the Tar Heels need to do to secure their first CBS Sports Classic victory over Kentucky? What are the Tar Heels looking for in their final non-conference game before ACC play starts next Tuesday in Raleigh against NC State?

Here are five things to watch for:

Consistent Free Throw and Three-Point Shooting

Last season, the Tar Heels finished with the lowest three-point percentage in program history (30.4 percent). To be fair, the entire NCAA combined for the lowest percentage in history, as well. Yet this year Carolina is currently shooting even worse. Through six games the Tar Heels have connected on 27.0 percent (24-89) of their threes, more than three percentage points down from last year.

Andrew Platek leads the team in three-point percentage with 43.8 percent. RJ Davis is shooting 34.8 percent, but no other Tar Heel is over 25 percent.

Carolina has also had its share of woes at the free throw line. Other than the season-opening 19-24 (79.2 percent) and most recent game’s 25-31 (80.6 percent), the Heels have shot 65.6, 62.5, 56.3, and 60.0 in the four games between. This includes nine missed free throws in a game Carolina lost by four. This includes 14 misses against Texas when UNC lost by just two.

The 80.6 percent against NC Central was a step in the right direction. Carolina now needs to build on that number moving forward.

Push the Pace

The Tar Heels are currently 92nd in Adjusted Tempo according to KenPom.com. In the Roy Williams era (the previous 17 seasons), Carolina has never finished worse than 67th in Adjusted Tempo. Even that 67 is an outlier (and was during last year’s 14-19 campaign). Of those 17 seasons, the Heels have finished in the top 25 of Adjusted Tempo 13 times and in the top 10 five times.

Raw data shows that Carolina has reached 80 points just once this year, and that was in a loss in which the opponent scored 93.

It’s no secret that Coach Williams wants to run. Until Caleb Love and RJ Davis are comfortable enough to push the pace properly (and do so efficiently), this iteration of the Tar Heels will not reach the height of its capability.

Reduce Turnovers

Taking away the season opener in which Carolina turned the ball over nine times, the Tar Heels have averaged 18 turnovers ago since. Roy Williams has often said that because of the pace he desires his team to play with, there is a higher threshold of acceptance when it comes to turnovers. That said, 18 per game is exorbitant.

Every turnover is a lost opportunity to score. Reducing the average down to the neighborhood of 12 would provide six more scoring opportunities per game.

Continue to Dominate the Boards

One way the Tar Heels are mitigating the turnover problem is by corralling 42.5 percent of all available offensive rebounds and 44.3 percent of their field goal misses. Doing so allows Carolina to create extra opportunities to score.

The rebounding prowess is not just on the offensive end. In total, the Tar Heels have a +15.5 rebounding margin, good for eighth in the country (although third amongst teams who have played at least five games). Additionally they are tied for fifth in total rebounds per game with 46.67, good enough for second amongst major schools.

Continued Maturation and Consistency from the Freshmen

As mentioned above, freshmen around the country have a steeper learning curve this year as a result of time lost to COVID-19. The level we are used to seeing a freshman compete at in the first couple of games perhaps won’t occur until somewhere between games 5-10 (or beyond). I urge patience to everyone in this scenario. Freshmen will have moments of brilliance. They will also have moments of being, well, freshmen.

Fair or not, the onus falls squarely on Caleb Love and RJ Davis, who have been tasked with running the team from the guard positions. Keep in mind that the freshmen seasons of even the most gifted freshman guards are often tumultuous. Love and Davis are eager to learn and hungry to put their education to use out on the court. The problem is that when they struggle, there is no veteran Seventh Woods, Nate Britt, or Quentin Thomas to bring in. These two must learn through the ups and downs.

Will Carolina exhibit growth in any of these five areas today against Kentucky? Or does the team need more time?

Tune in at 2:00ET on CBS to find out!

You can follow us for future coverage by clicking “Follow” on the top right hand corner of the page.

Send Isaac Schade an email to talk more about this article.

Follow us on Twitter: @SI_Heels | @isaacschade

Please post any comments below!