Kerwin Walton Is On Pace to Become the Best Freshman Three-Point Shooter in UNC History
In early January, two games after Kerwin Walton had been inserted into North Carolina’s starting lineup, I examined his candidacy to be the unlikely Tar Heel to break the Roy Williams-era freshman three-point shooting curse. Eight games later, Walton is on track to do exactly that.
Kerwin Walton is currently shooting 45.7 percent (32-for-70) from beyond the arc.
The man he is trying to supplant at the top of the list is none other than current UNC Assistant Director of Basketball Operations, Kendall Marshall, who finished his first season in Chapel Hill with the highest Roy Williams-era freshman three-point field goal percentage (minimum 50 attempts) at 37.7 percent (20-for-53).
So let’s cut to the chase: is Walton on track to displace Kendall Marshall as the most accurate three-point shooting freshman of the Roy Williams era?
In a word, yes.
Let’s put it this way: Walton could miss his next 14 attempts and still have a better three-point percentage than Marshall.
But Walton won’t do that. Since entering the starting lineup 10 games ago, he has been the model of consistency from deep. The guard from Hopkins, Minnesota has made at least one three-pointer in every game in that 10-game span. Going a step further, he’s made multiple threes in eight of those ten games.
In his 10 games as a starter, Walton is taking an average of 5.8 threes per game and making 2.7 of them. For the entire season, he is averaging 1.78 made threes per game on 3.89 attempts.
Not only could Walton overtake Marshall’s 37.7 percent, but he could also be the first Roy Williams-era freshman to eclipse 40 percent.
Why stop there?
We’re to the point now where it’s highly possible that Kerwin Walton (ranked 127th in the class of 2020) could become the most accurate three-point shooter in UNC basketball history (once again, minimum 50 attempts).
The current holder of that title is Jeff McInnis, who made 41.5 percent (27-for-65) of his attempts in 1993-94.
PROJECTIONS
What exactly will it take for Walton to break these marks - Kendall Marshall’s 37.7 percent? First freshman under Roy Williams to break 40 percent? Jeff McInnis’ UNC freshman record 41.5 percent?
Let’s do some loosey-goosey math to help determine our hypothetical outcomes.
Carolina has somewhere between seven and nine ACC games remaining (depending on if the Clemson and Miami games are rescheduled). Let's assume that the number is nine. We aren’t sure about the certainty of the ACC Tournament being played or how many games the Tar Heels would play. We also don’t know about the number of NCAA Tournament games Carolina will play in. For the sake of this exercise, let’s give UNC an average of four total postseason games combined between the two tournaments. Therefore, between the regular season and postseason, let’s estimate that the Tar Heels have 13 games remaining this season. It could be more. It could be less.
Unless something drastic changes, Kerwin Walton will continue to be part of the starting lineup, where he is averaging 5.8 three-point attempts per game. At that rate, Walton would attempt 75.4 more threes this season over the course of 13 games, which we’ll round down to 75. Add those 75 to his current number of attempts and he will have 145 total three-point attempts this season. He has already made 32.
To break Kendall Marshall’s record of 37.7 percent, Walton would need to make 55 total of his projected 145 three-point attempts this season. That means he just needs to hit 23 of his final 75 three-point shots.
To hit at least 40 percent of his three-pointers this season, Walton would need to make 58 of his projected 145 three-point attempts. To reach that benchmark, he needs to connect on 26 of his final 75 three-point shots.
And finally, what will it take for Kerwin Walton, the least heralded member of the 2020 UNC recruiting class, to become the best three-point shooting freshman in Carolina history (by percentage)? He would need to make 61 of his projected 145 three-point attempts this season. In order to do so, Walton will need to connect on 29 of his final 75 three-point attempts.
Will Kerwin Walton set any of these records? Will he hit one of them? All of them?
Let me know your thoughts about Walton's chances on Twitter.
Additionally, stay dialed into All Tar Heels for all your Kerwin Walton updates as he continues to help balance the Carolina offense.
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