Is Cameron Rising first round draft material?
With the 2022 NFL Draft taking place last week and the college football season less than four months away, its never to early to begin speculating on next years draft and which players might be taken off the board first. With the abundance of talent on Utah's roster, especially on the offensive side of the ball, the Utes should present more than just one draft selection in the 2023 draft. With that being said, one of the biggest questions surrounding next years draft is whether or not quarterback Cameron Rising is first round material.
On Monday, May 2, NFL Draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. joined the Adam Schefter podcast where he named several quarterbacks that could be taken in the first round of next years draft. To no surprise, names like Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud were "guaranteed" first round selections. But as Kiper continued, Rising's name emerged as a potential first round pick, dependent on how this year unfolds and what kind of progress Rising demonstrates.
As for the 2021 season, Rising was simply excellent for Utah. In 13 appearances with 11 starts, Rising went 204-320 (63%) for 2,493 yards (210 yard average in those 11 starts), 20 TD's (16 passing touchdowns in those 11 starts) and just 5 interceptions. Notably, Utah was also 9-2 with Rising at the helm, only losing to Oregon State and eventually Ohio State in the Rose Bowl.
So how does Rising compare to some of the latest quarterbacks drafted? Let's compare him to Kenny Pickett who was just recently selected 20th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers, and former Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert who was drafted sixth overall by the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020.
It's important to compare Rising to both of these quarterbacks second to last season, and their final collegiate year, since Rising has yet to play a full season a starter, let alone have the opportunity to demonstrate growth as an upperclassmen.
As for Pickett who played at Pitt, his second to last season was in 2020 which presented a similar situation to Risings 2021 in terms of games. For the 2020 season, Pickett started in nine games where he went 203-332 (61.1%) for 2,408 yards (267 per game), 13 TD's and nine interceptions. As for 2021, Pickett experienced a significant amount of growth, throwing for 4,319 yards on a 67% clip (334-497, almost 200 more attempts than 2020) for 42 TD's and only 7 interceptions.
In regards to former Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert, who is one of the bright young NFL stars, he too saw notable improvements, although not as intense as Pickett. During his junior year in 2018, Herbert went 240-404 (59%) for 3,151 yards and 29 touchdowns with just eight interceptions. In 2019, Herbert went 286-428 (66.8%) for 3,471 yards and 32 touchdowns with six picks.
While Herbert's progression wasn't as explosive at Pickett, it didn't need to be. Herbert was already at the level he needed to be at and he made slight improvements where he needed to. His completion percentage rose by roughly eight percent, he threw for 300 more yards, several more touchdowns and decreased his interceptions by two.
Taking it a step further, if you average out the top quarterbacks selected in the 2021 draft, such as Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, the average of their final seasons were 3,781 yards, 32 touchdowns, and a 73% completion percentage.
So what do these numbers and performances tell us about Rising? He's very close. Given his averages, if Rising would've started from the beginning, we can estimate that he would've finished 2021 with approximately 2,940 yards and 25 touchdowns. Now facing an entire season, as long as he can remain healthy, Rising is presented an opportunity to get those numbers right where they need to be in order to prove himself worthy of the first round.
If Rising can add 300-500 more yards, increase his completion percentage by 5%-8%, and throw 5-8 more touchdowns than what a full 14-game season would've produced in 2021, he should easily catch the eyes of NFL scouts and could be a high draft selection in 2023.
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