Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt vs. Florida

Vanderbilt basketball faces Florida at Memorial Gymnasium on Saturday. Here's what it'll take for it to leave with a win.

Feb 4, 2025; Gainesville, Florida, USA; Vanderbilt Commodores head coach Mark Byington during the game against the Florida Gators at Exactech Arena at the Stephen C. O'Connell Center. Mandatory Credit: Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images | Morgan Tencza-Imagn Images

NASHVILLE--Vanderbilt basketball has a chance to find its way back into a win on Saturday, but the defending national champions stand in the way.

Here's what Vanderbilt needs to do in order to move to 17-1 on the season and a prediction as to what Saturday's game will entail.

Keep Florida’s bigs from taking over the game

Here’s the path to Florida coming into Memorial Gymnasium and winning on Saturday. Ready? 

Florida’s bigs outscore Vanderbilt’s significantly, outrebound Vanderbilt–which isn’t hard to imagine with Florida being second in offensive rebounding and third in defensive rebounding—and get Devin McGlockton as well as Jalen Washington in foul trouble. In that equation, Florida’s guards have to be just good enough. 

Todd Golden has perhaps the most complete frontcourt in the country while Vanderbilt still has plenty of questions to answer as it pertains to what it actually has in the frontcourt and how matchup dependent its frontcourt will make it.  

The next few weeks are a period in which Vanderbilt’s true level in the frontcourt will come to light. It’s faced a few good ones in Wake Forest’s, Texas’ and Alabama’s. The jury is still out on it based on those performances, though. 

Make Florida shoot it 

Florida is a competitor for the SEC regular season title and has a chance to make a real push, but it’s got something holding it back. 

Each of Florida’s three primary guards shoot it below 42% from the field and it shows in the team’s cumulative percentages. Florida is 353th in the country in 3-point shooting and is more inside-out than it would like to be. Golden invested heavily in guardplay, but he hasn’t reaped the benefits like he had hoped. 

Vanderbilt has a significant advantage there. 

If Florida is going to be potent offensively, it’s going to play true to form where it’s taking more of its shots inside the arc–where it is 23rd in efficiency and 71st in frequency–rather than outside it–where it is 312th in frequency. 

Don’t let Florida do what Texas did to the offense

Florida is 20th in the country in opponent assist rate and  and is ninth in overall defense because of its ability to stall offenses and protect the rim. 

This has the potential to be a game in which Vanderbilt has some ball stopping and has to win in isolation at times. That’s not the blueprint, though. Vanderbilt has to find a way to share it and to get good analytical shots. 

Golden wants Vanderbilt to settle for mid-range looks like it did against Texas. 

Prediction: Florida: 85, Vanderbilt: 79

Vanderbilt appears to be worn down a bit here and is in a tough spot off of a quick turnaround. It’s not as if Vanderbilt isn’t still an SEC title contender if it loses, but this feels like a natural point for it to slow down before putting its foot back on the gas. 

The biggest story is whether it can handle Florida’s frontcourt.