Three Keys and a Prediction: Vanderbilt vs. Mississippi State

Vanderbilt basketball takes on Mississippi State on Saturday with a chance to bounce back from a three-game losing streak. Here's what Mark Byington's team has to do in order to take down Josh Hubbard and the Bulldogs.

Vanderbilt guard Tyler Nickel (5) celebrates 3 points against Mississippi State during the first half at Memorial Gymnasium in Nashville, Tenn., Tuesday, Jan. 7, 2025. | Andrew Nelles / The Tennessean / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Mark Byington and Vanderbilt basketball look to bounce back from Tuesday’s "embarrassing" performance in its loss against Arkansas on Saturday. 

Vanderbilt heads to Starkville to face Mississippi State at 11:00 AM Central on Saturday as it looks to snap a three-game skid. Byington’s team will be favored in all likelihood, but it will still have to be sharp to do so. Here’s three keys to a Vanderbilt win and a prediction. 

Can it stop Josh Hubbard?

Hubbard is among the best—and most explosive guards—in the league and would be a darling nationally if this Mississippi State team was more accomplished.

The junior guard has perhaps the best range in the league, can get to just about any spot he wants to, is the quickest guard on the floor in just about every game he plays and is as natural a scorer as anyone in the league.

Vanderbilt likely won’t stop Hubbard—or get anywhere close to doing so—but he’s the engine that makes this thing go and is the only real gamechanger on this Mississippi State roster. 

Hubbard vs. Vanderbilt guard Tyler Tanner is among the best individual matchups we’ll see in a Vanderbilt game this season.

Force non-Hubbard 3s

Even with Hubbard factored in, Mississippi State is 324th in the country in 3-point percentage.

That’s the clear flaw in this group. It’s not as if Vanderbilt can entirely pack it in here, but it should have multiple rotational players labeled as no  shooters that it can live with open attempts from. 

Mississippi State is capable of beating Vanderbilt—particularly in Starkville—but it likely won’t do it with explosive offense. Only two of Mississippi State’s rotational players shoot it better than 30% from 3-point range. 

If Chris Jans’ team is going to win Saturday, it’s going to be because it mucked up the game and got Vanderbilt out of character or because Hubbard put together a special performance. 

You’ll never be able to guess this one

Vanderbilt has to find a way to at least be respectable on the glass and it has to keep its go-to guys out of foul trouble and on the floor. 

The good news; Mississippi State is just 148th in offensive rebounding, 140th in defensive rebounding and doesn’t draw all that many fouls. It’s got a competent frontcourt, but this is the Hubbard show. 

Time to see if Vanderbilt can bounce back in a spot that’s natural for it. 

Prediction: Vanderbilt: 85, Mississippi State: 71

The environment will be challenging for this Vanderbilt team, but this still feels like a spot in which it can get right with the type of performance it’s capable of. Mississippi State is a good matchup for it and doesn’t have the talent to beat Vanderbilt if the Commodores are at their best.