Evaluating Virginia's Postseason Prospects After the Duke Loss
The Cavaliers whiffed on a big-time opportunity to solidify their NCAA Tournament resume, as Virginia (21-9, 12-7 ACC) suffered yet another blowout loss on the road, falling 73-48 at No. 10 Duke (23-6, 14-4 ACC) on Saturday night at Cameron Indoor. Just one game remains for UVA in the regular season, as the Cavaliers have the week off before hosting Georgia Tech in the season finale on Saturday at 8pm at John Paul Jones Arena.
With the calendar flipped to March and postseason basketball nearly upon us, let's take a look at where things stand for Virginia in terms of both the ACC Tournament and the NCAA Tournament.
ACC Tournament Seeding Scenarios
Even with the loss to Duke, Virginia still has sole possession of third place in the ACC standings at 12-7. A win against Georgia Tech on Saturday would simplify things, as the Cavaliers would be locked into the No. 3 seed in the ACC Tournament with no need for tiebreakers.
If Virginia loses to Georgia Tech? Well, then things could get real complicated as there are four teams within striking distance just below the Cavaliers in the standings. Syracuse, who also only has one game left in the regular season, is one game behind UVA at 11-8 in fourth place, but Clemson, Pittsburgh, and Wake Forest are all tied for fifth at 10-8 and each have two games left to play. Clemson has games against Syracuse and Wake Forest in the final week, making it even more troublesome to try to project how the seedings and tiebreakers will shake out next weekend. With a loss to the Yellow Jackets, the Cavaliers could find themselves as high as the No. 3 seed or as low as the No. 6 seed in the ACC Tournament.
With so many teams having a chance to finish tied in the ACC standings at 12-8, Virginia would do well to avoid that group and its many permutations of tiebreakers altogether by beating Georgia Tech on Saturday.
NCAA Tournament Bubble Watch
The loss to Duke is a Quad 1 game, so Virginia is now 2-6 in Quad 1. But it's also another lopsided defeat (25 points), UVA's seventh by at least 15 points and fifth by at least 20 points. All nine of Virginia's losses this season have been by double digits and such sizable margins of defeat have damaging effects on a team's metrics. Virginia fell three spots in the NET rankings to No. 49 and eight spots on KenPom to No. 70 following the loss to Duke.
Before the Duke game, Virginia was right around a No. 10 seed according to most NCAA Tournament projections, not quite in the territory of "Last Four In" but still on the Bubble. Many of those Bracketologists won't update their bracket forecasts until the end of the weekend, but we can theorize about where things stand. A loss to Duke in Cameron, even one of this magnitude, shouldn't knock the Cavaliers down that far, but it certainly continues the disturbing trend of UVA looking totally uncompetitive at times this season, a trend that will be difficult for the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee to ignore.
So, what do the Cavaliers have to do to make the committee forget about the ugly losses and secure an at-large bid to the Big Dance?
Virginia wraps up the regular season at home against Georgia Tech (NET 134) on March 9th. That's a Quad 3 game, so it's not going to help move the needle for UVA a whole lot, but it's a must-win game in order for Virginia to keep its current positioning. A loss to the Yellow Jackets would be disastrous and would do possibly irreparable damage to UVA's resume.
If Virginia gets past Georgia Tech, clinching the No. 3 seed and earning a double-bye to the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament, UVA will face the No. 6 seed, which should be someone from that group of Syracuse, Clemson, Pittsburgh, or Wake Forest. Clemson (NET 25), Pitt (NET 44), and Wake (NET 31) are all in the top 50 of the NET rankings right now and if they stay there, they would be Quad 1 opponents on a neutral floor for Virginia at the ACC Tournament. Syracuse (NET 84) would be Quad 2.
A win in that quarterfinal would essentially lock up an NCAA Tournament at-large bid for Virginia, while a loss would leave the Cavaliers sweating it out with the rest of the teams on the Bubble on Selection Sunday.
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