Virginia Basketball vs. Baylor Game Preview, Score Prediction
The Virginia men's basketball team will face an extremely difficult pair of challenges this weekend at the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. Not only are the Cavaliers facing two big tests against two ranked opponents - and potentially two opponents ranked in the top 10 depending on the second matchup - but they will do so coming off of an unexpected week-long break filled with tragedy and distraction.
Due to the heartbreaking shooting at the University of Virginia on Sunday night that left three UVA football players dead, Virginia's third game of the season - a matchup against Northern Iowa originally scheduled for Monday night - was canceled. The Cavaliers now head to Vegas with only two games under their belt and will take the court against the No. 5-ranked team in the nation in the Baylor Bears.
Playing less than five days after the shooting, there will certainly be an added element for the Wahoos this weekend that goes beyond basketball, but they'll hope to use the motivation of playing in honor of Lavel Davis Jr., Devin Chandler, and D'Sean Perry to drive them to play their best in Las Vegas.
This matchup features the 2019 and 2021 NCAA National Champions, two programs that have earned No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament a combined four times in the last five seasons, and two of the best coaches in college basketball in Scott Drew and Tony Bennett. This Friday-night showdown between the 16th-ranked Cavaliers and the 5th-ranked Bears has all the makings of an instant classic.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Baylor, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (2-0) vs. Baylor Bears (3-0)
When: Friday, November 18th at 7pm
Where: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, NV
How to watch: ESPN2
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
How to listen: SiriusXM 84 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates
All-time series: Baylor leads 1-0
Last meeting: Baylor defeated Virginia 79-61 on December 28th, 1968
Line: Baylor -5.0
Opponent Scouting Report: Baylor
2021-2022: 27-7, 14-4 Big 12
2022-2023: 3-0
Wins: Mississippi Valley State 117-53, Norfolk State 87-70, Northern Colorado 95-62
In the 2020-2021 season, Baylor denied Gonzaga from becoming the first team since 1976 to run the table with an undefeated season, routing the Bulldogs 86-70 to win the National Championship. The Bears had a solid chance to defend their title last season, winning 26 games in the regular season. But, Baylor was upset in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament by Oklahoma and then got bounced out of the NCAA Tournament in the second round in a thrilling game by the No. 8-seed North Carolina Tar Heels, who went on to reach the national title game.
From that team, Baylor lost several key contributors, including James Akinjo, Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown, and Matthew Mayer, who transferred to Illinois, a team that is also participating in this tournament in Las Vegas. With that said, the Bears have yet another deep and talented roster this season, featuring a few notable returners and some new faces as well.
Adam Flagler led the Bears in scoring last season and appears to have found another gear in the early stages of this campaign. The 6'3" senior guard is averaging 17.3 points per game and is shooting a blistering 57.9% from three on 19 attempts so far this season. As a team, Baylor is shooting 37.9% from beyond the arc through three games, an area in which the Bears are much improved over last season, something they share in common with the Cavaliers.
6'1" junior LJ Cryer joins Flagler in the backcourt with 14.3 points per game, as does star freshman Keyonte George, who is off to a great start, averaging 16.0 points per game. George has also dished out 20 assists, second only to Flagler's 23, and averages 6.0 rebounds per game, which is also second on the team. The 6'4" freshman guard has a very bright season ahead of him.
West Virginia transfer Jalen Bridges gives the Bears versatility in the front court as a stretch-four, averaging 16.0 points per game and knocking down four of 12 three-point attempts so far this season. 6'10" center Flo Thamba is back for his 5th season, anchoring the Bears on the defensive end and on the glass.
Dale Bonner, Langston Love, Caleb Lohner, and Josh Ojianwuna have also made solid contributions in the early going, although Scott Drew has had a lot of freedom to spread the minutes around thanks to Baylor winning its first three games by a combined 114 points. In what should (hopefully) be a closer game against Virginia in Baylor's first big test of the season, it will be interesting to see if Drew tightens his rotations.
Baylor has done three things extremely well in the past few seasons under Scott Drew: rebound the basketball, force turnovers, and score points off those turnovers. That trend has continued so far this season, as the Bears have outrebounded their opponents 127-90, forced 68 total turnovers (including 39 steals), and scored an average of 28.7 points per game off of those turnovers.
Rebounding was an issue for Virginia last season - this will be the first big litmus test to see how much the Cavaliers have improved in that area. The Cavaliers usually take good care of the basketball as well, but with the Bears hunting for steals on every possession, avoiding turnovers and preventing Baylor from scoring easy baskets in transition will be essential for Virginia to win this game. And of course, one of the biggest questions is how good Virginia really is from a perimeter shooting standpoint - Friday night's game and this whole tournament in Vegas will provide an early answer to that question.
Game Notes
- Virginia and Baylor meet for only the second-time in history with the first meeting coming back in 1968, a 79-61 win for Baylor in Greenville, North Carolina.
- Tony Bennett and Scott Drew face each other for the third time, as they met twice when Bennett was the head coach at Washington State. They split those two meetings, with Washington State winning in 2007 and Baylor winning in 2008.
- This is the first top-five opponent UVA has played since facing No. 1 Gonzaga on December 26th, 2020, a 98-75 victory for the Bulldogs.
- Virginia is 48-41 in games against ranked opponents under Tony Bennett, but UVA went just 1-3 against ranked teams last season.
- The Cavaliers have taken home the championship in seven of the last eight non-conference November tournaments they have played in, including the Legends Classic in 2021.
- Virginia faces a Big 12 opponent for the first time since taking down Texas Tech 85-77 in overtime to capture the 2019 NCAA National Championship.
- UVA holds a 16-18 record all-time against teams currently in the Big 12.
Prediction
Each of Virginia's two games this weekend will likely end up as Quad 1 games at the end of the season, win or lose. With the trying circumstances of the week combined with what could potentially be back-to-back games against top-10 opponents over a three-day period, it wouldn't be shocking to see the Cavaliers come out of this weekend 0-2. That outcome would not necessarily mean the Hoos return from Vegas empty-handed, though, as the experience of playing top-tier competition early in the season is a proven method for building some of the best teams in the long run.
With that said, Virginia's offensive improvements in the first two games have surpassed most expectations and the early contributions of Ben Vander Plas, Isaac McKneely, and Ryan Dunn and the confident shooting of Armaan Franklin have significantly raised the ceiling for this UVA basketball team. I'd also say that there is no better man than Tony Bennett to find the perfect balance of getting his team to play hard in honor of the victims of the shooting tragedy while also having them laser-focused on the game itself. The UVA community will appreciate the team's efforts this weekend regardless of the outcomes, but I think the Cavaliers make a statement for this college basketball season on Friday and win a close one over the Bears.
Score prediction: Virginia 74, Baylor 70
