Virginia Basketball vs. Duke Game Preview, Score Prediction

For the first time in 43 years, Virginia faces a Duke team coached by someone other than Mike Krzyzewski. The Jon Scheyer era of Duke basketball has begun and the first-year head coach is set to lead the latest cast of Duke freshmen stars into John Paul Jones Arena, where no ACC team has had more success than Duke. The Blue Devils are still trying to find a rhythm as team and they currently find themselves sixth in the ACC standings at 8-5. The Cavaliers, meanwhile, enter Saturday's game in a three-way tie for first place in the ACC with Pittsburgh and Clemson at 10-3. Virginia and Duke have played many close and entertaining games in the past several seasons and this matchup is expected to be more of the same with a lot on the line for both teams.

Read on for a full preview of Virginia vs. Duke, including details on the game, an opponent scouting report, game notes, and a score prediction.

Game Details

Who: Virginia Cavaliers (18-4, 10-3 ACC) vs. Duke Blue Devils (17-7, 8-5 ACC)

When: Saturday, February 11th at 4pm ET

Where: John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Virginia

How to watch: ESPN

How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)

How to listen: SiriusXM 81, SXM App 81 | Virginia Sports Radio Network - click here for affiliates

All-time series: Duke leads 123-53

Last meeting: Duke defeated Virginia 65-61 on Wednesday, February 23rd at John Paul Jones Arena.

Opponent Scouting Report: Duke

2022-2023: 17-7, 8-5 ACC
Notable results: Kansas 69-64 L, Purdue 75-56 L, at Wake Forest 81-70 L, NC State 84-60 L, Pittsburgh 77-69 W, Clemson 72-64 L, Miami 68-66 W, at Virginia Tech 78-75 L, Wake Forest 75-73 W, North Carolina 63-57 W, at Miami 81-59 L

The last year has been a major transition period for the Blue Devils, who went through a coaching change for the first time in more than four decades. One part of that transition which has remained consistent is that Duke once again sustained a great deal of roster turnover with just a few returners on the roster and a brand-new cast of freshmen and transfer newcomers. Coach K was brilliant at getting the most out of his freshmen, getting them to play good basketball by the time March came around. Jon Scheyer's group has endured some significant growing pains this season and it remains to be seen if he'll be able to get the Blue Devils to play at a high level in time for postseason play. Saturday's game at Virginia will be a very telling test for Duke's journey this season.

The Blue Devils won 10 of their first 12 games, with the only losses coming against then-No. 6 Kansas and Purdue, the current No. 1 team in the nation. Duke picked up notable non-conference wins against Xavier, Ohio State, and Iowa, but then started off ACC play by losing two of its first four conference games, including an 84-60 blowout loss at NC State on January 4th.

That up-and-down roller coaster has become the recurring theme of the season for the Blue Devils. They earned an impressive win against Duke, but then stumbled at Clemson, bounced back with another good win against Miami, but then suffered another road setback at Virginia Tech. Duke followed that up by winning three-consecutive games, including a big rivalry win against North Carolina last Saturday, but then the Blue Devils basically got ran off the court in an ugly 81-59 loss at Miami on Monday. So far, Duke has been unable to bring its best basketball on the road, as the Blue Devils are 2-5 in true road games, with all five of those road losses coming in ACC play.

With the aforementioned significant roster turnover, Duke's top five leading scorers from last season's team that went to the Final Four are no longer with the team. Gone are Paolo Banchero, Mark Williams, Trevor Keels, Wendell Moore, AJ Griffin, Theo John, and Joey Baker. Jeremy Roach and Jaylen Blakes are the only returners who played substantial minutes last season. But as usual, Duke reloaded with the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2022 and also added a couple of notable transfers.

Leading the way for the Blue Devils is Kyle Filipowski, who is running away with the ACC Freshman of the Year award. The 7'0", 230-pound freshman center is a double-double machine, averaging 15.5 points and 9.3 rebounds per game and can be a load to handle on the offensive glass. He is not a great three-point shooter at just 28.7%, but Filipowski is still willing to step out for a couple of three-pointers a game in order to stretch the floor. In Monday's loss at Miami, Filipowski broke a streak of nine-consecutive games scoring in double figures, a span that included five double-doubles. Virginia will need another big game from Kadin Shedrick, who surged back onto the scene against NC State and played very well against Wolfpack big DJ Burns after seeing his playing time reduced to nothing over the past few weeks.

Virginia native Jeremy Roach is back and running the show on offense for Duke. The 6'2" junior guard is averaging 12.6 points, 2.9 assists, and 2.7 rebounds per game and shoots 34.6% from three. Joining Roach in the backcourt is 6'5" freshman guard Tyrese Proctor, a product of Sydney, Australia who is averaging 8.7 points, 3.3 rebounds, and 2.9 assists per game.

Freshman forward Mark Mitchell is the team's best three-point shooter at 38.2% from beyond the arc and could present a significant matchup problem for the Cavaliers with his size and athleticism at 6'8", 225 pounds. He averages 8.8 points and 4.3 rebounds per game. Duke has another athletic wing in 6'7" freshman Dariq Whitehead, who is averaging 8.4 points per game and shooting 37.3% from three, but Whitehead has missed the last four games with a lower leg injury and Jon Scheyer said he is close to a return, but couldn't confirm if Whitehead would be able to play at Virginia on Saturday.

Jacob Grandison and Jaylen Blakes give Duke some additional options at the guard/wing positions if Whitehead is unable to play. A 6'6" graduate transfer from Illinois, Grandison is averaging 4.8 points per game and shooting 32.8% from three. 6'2" sophomore guard Jaylen Blakes is averaging 4.3 points per game and is a better three-point shooter at 36.6% from three.

Duke is not a good three-point shooting team, shooting 32.3% as a team, which ranks 12th in the ACC. The strength of the Blue Devils comes with their size, which affords them significant advantages in rebounding, interior scoring, and rim protection.

In addition to Kyle Filipowski, the Blue Devils have 6'10" center Ryan Young, a transfer from Northwestern. Young is averaging 8.0 points and 6.2 rebounds per game and is shooting 73.1% from the floor, able to finish anything near the rim. Dereck Lively II was voted the ACC Preseason Rookie of the Year, but the 7'1" freshman center has struggled to live up to that hype. He scored in double figures for just the second time this season in the loss at Miami, scoring 11 points on 5/6 shooting to go along with six rebounds and five blocks. In the game before that, Lively registered 14 rebounds and eight blocks to help the Blue Devils take down North Carolina, so he is starting to play better basketball of late. If anything, Duke has a lot of size with Kyle Filipowski, Ryan Young, and Dereck Lively II. Virginia's small ball lineups may be effective on the offensive end, but the Cavaliers will struggle to keep the Blue Devils off the offensive glass with those lineups. Expect Kadin Shedrick and even Francisco Caffaro to get extended playing time in this matchup.

Duke has the second-best defense in the ACC (trailing only Virginia), allowing 64.1 points per game. The Blue Devils are middle of the pack on offense, scoring 71.9 points per game (9th in the ACC), but they are No. 1 in the ACC in offensive rebounds and rebounding margin. The Cavaliers must give a strong and disciplined effort rebounding on both ends of the floor.

Virginia can also take advantage of Duke's problems with ball security, where the team's youth and inexperience shows most directly. The Blue Devils turn the ball over an average of 12.5 times per game, which ranks 14th in the ACC. Only Louisville is worse in that category. As one of the top teams in the country in taking care of the basketball, Virginia should be able to rely on a firm advantage in turnover margin on Saturday.

Game Notes

Virginia is 53-123 all-time against Duke in a series that dates back to 1910.
Duke holds a 41-35 advantage against UVA in games played in Charlottesville.
Virginia is 5-13 against Duke under Tony Bennett.
The Blue Devils have won seven of the last ten meetings with the Cavaliers.
Six of the last seven games between Virginia and Duke have been decided by four points or less.
Virginia and Duke split a two-game season series last year, with both teams winning on the road.
Saturday's game marks the first time since 1996 that Duke will play at Virginia as an unranked team.
Duke is sixth in the ACC standings at 8-5 and UVA is in a three-way tie for first with Pittsburgh and Clemson at 10-3.

Prediction

Duke has been one of very few teams to have a high rate of success winning as a road team at John Paul Jones Arena, a testament to the talented teams and great coaching by Coach K and his staff to be able to so consistently defeat Tony Bennett and the Cavaliers on their home floor. With that said, Duke has been terrible on the road this season, going 2-5 in true road games, while Virginia has been excellent at home, going 11-1 inside the friendly confines of JPJ.

UVA and Duke almost always play close games and it wouldn't be surprising to see yet another thrilling contest between these two teams come down to the wire. Expect the Blue Devils to play with some fire after their humbling loss at Miami, but the Cavaliers should have a decisive home-court advantage as well as an edge in terms of defense, perimeter shooting, and experience, allowing Virginia to gain the upper hand in the second half and earn a close win.

Score prediction: Duke 67, Virginia 71

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