Jamie Rhodes-USA TODAY Sports
Virginia Football vs. Louisville | Game Preview, Score Prediction
The Virginia Cavaliers host the Louisville Cardinals on Saturday at noon at Scott Stadium. Both the Cavaliers and the Cardinals are seeking their first conference victories of the season. This is a pivotal moment in the season for Virginia and Louisville, as both teams enter this game 2-3 and in desperate need of a victory to preserve any hope of turning the season around.
Read on for a full preview of Louisville at Virginia, including details on how to watch, stat comparisons, offensive and defensive scouting reports, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Louisville Cardinals (2-3, 0-3 ACC) at Virginia Cavaliers (2-3, 0-2 ACC)
When: Saturday, October 8th at 12pm
Where: Scott Stadium in Charlottesville, Virginia
How to watch: ACC Network
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Tied 5-5
Last meeting: Virginia defeated Louisville 34-33 in 2021.
Spread: Louisville -2.5
Over/Under: 50.5
Stat Comparisons
Opponent Snapshot: Louisville
2021: 6-7, 4-4 ACC
2022: 2-3, 0-3 ACC | Wins: at UCF, vs. USF | Losses: at Syracuse, vs. Florida State, at Boston College
After being named the ACC Coach of the Year in his first season at Louisville in 2019, it has been rough sledding for Scott Satterfield in the three seasons since then. Satterfield now finds himself potentially on the hot seat after the Cardinals suffered a one-point loss at Boston College in a game in which Louisville was favored by nearly two touchdowns. Louisville has picked up two non-conference wins against Central Florida and South Florida, but the Cards were blown out at Syracuse in week 1 and suffered close, hard-fought losses against Florida State and Boston College. Still, Louisville has a lot of talent on both sides of the ball and could come into this game with an edge as the Cardinals, like the Cavaliers, search for their first ACC win of the season.
Louisville Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Any discussion of the Louisville offense must begin and end with star quarterback Malik Cunningham. Responsible for over 11,000 yards of total offense and 108 total touchdowns throughout his career, Cunningham has been the engine of the Louisville offense and the leader of the program for the last several seasons. But, his availability for this game is in question after he suffered a couple of blows to the head and began experiencing concussion-like symptoms in the game at Boston College last week. Officially, Cunningham's status is "day-to-day" according to Scott Satterfield. With all the controversy surrounding concussions in football recently, it wouldn't be all that surprising to see Louisville err on the side of caution and sit him out, but the Cardinals also really need him to play in this game if they want to have any hope of salvaging their season.
Cunningham's backup is 6'2" junior Brock Domann, who came in for Cunningham at the end of the Boston College game last week. In three possessions leading the offense, Domann went 1/8 for 19 yards and threw an interception on a Hail Mary attempt to end the game. Fortunately, the Cardinals can rely on the ACC's best ground game, averaging 209.0 yards per rush. There is a little uncertainty regarding the availability of some of Louisville's running backs, as Tiyon Evans (53 carries, 263 yards, 3 TDs) and Trevion Cooley (27 carries, 123 yards, 1 TD) are both day-to-day and Jalen Mitchell is likely to be still be out with a leg injury suffered earlier this season. But, the Cardinals have a deep running back room with Jawhar Jordan (42 carries, 173 yards) and, if he's available, Malik Cunningham as the team's leading rusher with 457 yards and nine touchdowns so far this season.
6'2" senior Tyler Hudson is Louisville's best receiver with 22 catches for 312 yards so far this season. He is joined by Ahmari Bruce-Huggins, a speedy 5'10" receiver with 17 receptions for 265 yards and a touchdown. Louisville's passing numbers don't jump off the page, but the Cardinals have the talent to exploit the UVA secondary if they make the same mistakes they did in the lopsided loss at Duke last week.
The bigger test for the Virginia defense will be to defend Louisville's ground game. Overall, UVA has been better against the run this season than last, but that's not saying very much. Last Saturday, the Cavaliers gave up 248 rushing yards and four rushing touchdowns to the Blue Devils, including a 59-yarder in the fourth quarter that essentially put the game away. The Cardinals have a strong offensive line, and regardless of Malik Cunningham's health status, Louisville will lean heavily on that advantage up front and pound the ball on the ground if the Cavalier defense isn't able to stop the run.
Virginia Offense vs. Louisville Defense
The battle in the trenches will be just as important when Virginia has the ball. The UVA offensive line has been steadily progressing this season and actually played pretty well at Duke last week, giving Armstrong lots of time to throw in the pocket. But this week, that group will be tested by a Louisville pass rush that is currently tied for first in the ACC with 16 sacks this season. The Cardinals have two of the conference's top five leaders in terms of sacks in YaYa Diaby (4.5 sacks) and Ashton Gillotte (3 sacks). Diaby, a 6'4", 270-pound defensive lineman, has 6.5 tackles for loss to lead the Cardinals and the UVA offensive line will need to be laser-focused to keep him and the other Louisville pass-rushers away from Armstrong.
Speaking of Brennan Armstrong, could this be the week that Armstrong and the UVA passing offense finally snap of their funk? There have been some encouraging signs that Armstrong and the Virginia receivers are starting to build some comfortability in the new offensive system, but that progression has yet to translate to points on the board. UVA is having some success moving the ball down the field, but still can't seem to get it into the end zone. Additionally, the UVA ground game, which had been doing well this season, struggled against Duke last week, totaling just 93 rushing yards.
Both Brennan Armstrong and offensive coordinator Des Kitchings said this week that the offense is progressing, but that missing on deep balls has led to their drives stalling since those misses get them behind the chains. The answer isn't to simply stop taking those shots, especially since we've seen what the Cavaliers are capable of offensively if Armstrong is on the same page as Dontayvion Wicks and Lavel Davis Jr. down the field.
UVA should definitely take its chances on those deep balls against a Louisville defense whose Achilles' heel has been giving up big plays. In the loss at Boston College last week, the Cardinals gave up 449 yards of total offense, 200 of which came on just five plays. Louisville is susceptible to the home-run plays and that is a big opportunity for Brennan Armstrong and the Cavaliers to finally get back in their groove. If UVA can hit on a couple of big plays in this game to get the confidence back, it could mean big things not only for just this game, but from a big picture standpoint as the Virginia offense looks to right the ship heading into the second half of the season.
Prediction
Malik Cunningham's status is the biggest question mark right now, but this is a game UVA can win regardless of if Cunningham plays or not. The way the Cavaliers have performed through the first five weeks, it's no surprise that the Cardinals are slight favorites despite coming in with the same 2-3 record. Louisville has simply looked not quite as bad as Virginia in its losses. UVA has yet to field anything remotely close to a complete performance yet, even in its two wins over Richmond and Old Dominion. But, Virginia is 2-0 at home and if the Cavaliers are serious about protecting their home field, then what better place to get their first ACC win of the year and perhaps get the season headed in the right direction?
Maybe that's wishful thinking, but with not a lot of "winnable" games left on the schedule, I'm going with the Hoos this week.
Prediction: Virginia 27, Louisville 24
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