Virginia Cavaliers Bowl Projections After Their Thrilling Win Over Louisville on Saturday

Virginia's third ACC win puts them in a good place to get a quality bowl game if they continue to trend upwards throughout the season.

Oct 4, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Virginia Cavaliers tight end John Rogers (89) runs the ball against Louisville Cardinals defensive back JoJo Evans Jr. (27) during the second half at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium. Virginia defeated Louisville 30-27. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images | Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

Virginia now sits at a comfortable 5-1 record, including a spotless 3-0 mark in the ACC through Week Six of 2025. An electrifying pair of back-to-back wins against Louisville and Florida State have put the Hoo's in a fantastic position to not only make a bowl but a quality bowl at that.

Let's take a look at the possible bowl matchups UVA could see themselves in later this season:

ESPN's Kyle Bonagura: Pop-Tarts Bowl (Virginia vs. TCU)

Oct 4, 2025; Fort Worth, Texas, USA; TCU Horned Frogs linebacker Kaleb Elarms-Orr (3) reacts after a defensive play against the Colorado Buffaloes during the second half at Amon G. Carter Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images | Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images

One of ESPN's college football experts, Kyle Bonagura, has Virginia matching up against TCU in the Pop-Tarts Bowl this postseason. UVA has only played against the Horned Frogs three times in program history. TCU has the edge with a 2-1 record and have won the last two matchups between the two schools. The last meeting between the two came all the way back back in 2012 when TCU quarterback Casey Pachall led the Horned Frogs to a 27-7 win over UVA running back Kevin Parks and Virginia.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach: TaxSlayer Gator Bowl (Virginia vs. South Carolina)

Sep 27, 2025; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks running back Matt Fuller (28) celebrates a touchdown against the Kentucky Wildcats in the second half at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-Imagn Images | Jeff Blake-Imagn Images

ESPN's other expert Mark Schlabach projects Virginia to take on South Carolina in the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl. According to Winsipedia, Virginia is 13-21 all-time against South Carolina in program history. The last time these two programs faced off was also in the postseason for the 2018 Belk Bowl. The Hoo's ended their season on a win and finished with a 8-5 record, second best in all of the ACC

Before matching up in that bowl game, UVA and South Carolina had split their previous four games around two decades ago. Virginia lost their 2003 matchup, won in 2002, and dropped the previous meeting in 1987. All four of those games were decided by two scores at least so no close calls between the two.

CBS Sports: Duke's Mayo Bowl (Virginia vs Mississippi State)

Oct 4, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Mississippi State Bulldogs quarterback Blake Shapen (2) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Texas A&M Aggies at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images | Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

CBS Sports is slating Virginia into the Duke's Mayo Bowl against Mississippi State. Funny enough, UVA and Mississippi State have never played each other ever. Virginia has been a member of the ACC since 1954, while Mississippi. State has been in the SEC since the early 1930s. Both schools were members of the Southern Conference, but those timelines never lined up.

We can take a look at this year's Mississippi State team since there is no history between the two schools. The Bulldogs are 4-2 at the time of writing, coming off two straight losses from ranked conference opponents in Texas A&M and Tennessee. Quarterback Blake Shapen leads the Mississippi State offense along with running back Fluff Bothwell. The Bulldogs' defense is led by pass-rushing defensive end DJ Reed and ball-hawk cornerback Kelley Jones.

Mississippi State has a rough schedule ahead before they could potentially see Virginia in the Duke's Mayo Bowl. The Bulldogs take on four more ranked opponents after falling to two in a row these past couple weeks. Mississippi State is now staring down Texas, Georgia, Missouri and Ole Miss as the second half of their schedule heats up.

Our Projection

If UVA keeps winning, they are going to be in line for a high level ACC bowl game (Pop Tarts, Duke's Mayo, others) or they could even be in the mix for the College Football Playoff. The Cavaliers are in that discussion now after the last two weeks, but there is still a ways to go. I think either the Pop Tart's Bowl against a Big 12 opponent or the Duke's Mayo Bowl against an SEC opponent appear to be the most likely for the Cavaliers, but they are in the hunt for even bigger prizes if they keep winning.