Virginia Football vs. Georgia Tech Game Preview, Score Prediction
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-3, 2-1 ACC) host the Virginia Cavaliers (2-4, 0-3 ACC) in a Thursday-night ACC clash in Atlanta. Both UVA and Georgia Tech are coming off of a bye week, but these two Coastal rivals are trending in opposite directions as they begin the second half of their seasons. Virginia comes in on a three-game losing streak and has yet to win an ACC game or a road game, while Georgia Tech has flourished since parting ways with head coach Geoff Collins in late September and enter this week on a two-game winning streak.
Read on for a full preview of Virginia at Georgia Tech, including details on how to watch, stat comparisons, offensive and defensive scouting reports, and a score prediction.
Game Details
Who: Virginia Cavaliers (2-4, 0-3 ACC) at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (3-3, 2-1 ACC)
When: Thursday, October 20th at 7:30pm
Where: Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
How to watch: ESPN
How to stream: fuboTV (Start your free trial)
All-time series: Tied 21-21-1
Last meeting: Virginia defeated Georgia Tech 48-40 in Charlottesville last season.
Spread: Georgia Tech -3
Over/Under: 47
Stat Comparisons
Opponent Snapshot: Georgia Tech
2021: 3-9, 2-6 ACC
2022: 3-3, 2-1 ACC
Wins: vs. Western Carolina 35-17, at Pittsburgh 26-21, vs. Duke 23-20 (OT)
Losses: vs. Clemson 41-10, vs. Ole Miss 42-0, at UCF 27-10
Geoff Collins had the hottest seat in the ACC coming into the season after winning just nine total games in his first three seasons at Georgia Tech. A 1-3 start to the season sealed his fate and, as it turns out, the fate of Georgia Tech athletic director Todd Stansbury, as both Collins and Stansbury were dismissed on September 26th. Assistant head coach Brent Key was named the interim head coach and he and the Yellow Jackets have done nothing short of a phenomenal job responding to this challenge.
Since the firing of Collins, Georgia Tech has won each of its last two games, including a stunning 26-21 upset win on the road against then-No. 24 Pittsburgh followed by a thrilling 23-20 overtime win against a solid Duke team on October 8th. New life has been injected into the Yellow Jackets' season as they have already matched their win total from each of the previous three years at the halfway point of this season. Georgia Tech will look to keep the ball rolling at home against a struggling Virginia squad.
Georgia Tech Offense vs. Virginia Defense
Dual-threat quarterback Jeff Sims is the engine of the Georgia Tech offense. Sims has completed 104 of 188 passes (58.8%) for 1,068 passing yards and five touchdowns, but he is more dangerous with his legs. Not accounting for sack yards, Sims is the team's leading rusher with 430 rushing yards and a touchdown. With sack yards included, he is Georgia Tech's second-leading rusher with 287 yards, which trails Hassan Hall, a transfer from Louisville who has 330 rushing yards and averages 5.4 yards per rush. UVA is very familiar with Hall, as he rushed for 162 yards and a touchdown in a game against Virginia when he was with Louisville last season.
In the receiving game, Sims' top target is sophomore receiver Nate McCollum, who has 29 catches for 283 yards and a touchdown so far this season. The Yellow Jackets have the ACC's worst passing offense in the country, though, averaging just 178.8 passing yards per game and they have scored only five passing touchdowns. Sims has been better of late, however, throwing for 232 yards and two touchdowns against Duke. Georgia Tech also rushed for 180 yards in what was a breakthrough offensive game in the win over Duke.
The Yellow Jackets rank last in the ACC in scoring offense at 17.3 points per game, just below Virginia (17.8), but the Georgia Tech offensive unit is playing with confidence now, while the Virginia defense has struggled mightily in the last couple of games after starting the season off strong. Virginia had not allowed 400 yards of total offense in a game through the first five weeks of the season, but then gave up 473 total yards to Louisville and backup quarterback Brock Domann in week 6.
Big plays were the bane of the UVA defense in 2021, but the Cavaliers had improved significantly in that area early in this season under new defensive coordinator John Rudzinski. Virginia relapsed against Louisville, though, surrendering 11 plays of 15 or more yards to the Cardinals, including six plays of 20 or more yards and touchdowns of 32 and 44 yards.
Big plays will be something to watch on Thursday, as will red zone execution. Georgia Tech started off the season scoring on just four of its 11 red zone trips through the first four games. In the last two games, the Yellow Jackets have scored on 10 of their 11 red zone trips and have started having more success throwing the ball in that area of the field as well, recording two red zone passing touchdowns after having only one such score in the first four weeks. The UVA defense, on the other hand, has allowed its opponents to score on 19 of their 21 trips to the red zone against the Cavaliers, including 11 touchdowns. After forcing some key red zone turnovers early in the season, Virginia has now gone the last four games without recording a red zone takeaway.
One final category to note is sacks. The UVA pass rush led the ACC in sacks after four games with 14 sacks. In the last two games, the Cavaliers have managed just one sack and failed to get to the quarterback a single time against Louisville. The UVA defensive front must get back on this track and that unit will have a solid chance to do so against a Georgia Tech offensive line that has given up 18 sacks this season, third-most in the ACC. Only Virginia (20) and Boston College (22) have given up more sacks.
Virginia Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense
That last note alluded to the struggles of the UVA offensive line and provides an appropriate transition to the Virginia offense. Yes, the Cavaliers have struggled to protect Brennan Armstrong, but at this point in the season, pocket protection isn't even in the top five problems for the UVA offense. Armstrong and the UVA receivers, who combined to field one of the best passing units in the country last season, have recorded just five passing touchdowns this season and average 227.2 passing yards per game, 11th in the ACC. Virginia remains committed to the ground game, but ranks 12th in the ACC at 129.7 rushing yards per game. The Cavaliers have begun to have some success moving the ball down the field, but continue to struggle to finish drives with touchdowns. UVA's scoring offense ranks 13th in the ACC at 17.8 points per game. Drops, turnovers, and penalties continue to plague what should be a talented Virginia offense.
Fortunately for the Hoos, the Georgia Tech defense isn't much better, ranking 12th in the ACC in both scoring defense - 28.0 points per game allowed - and total defense - 389.5 yards per game allowed. The Yellow Jackets are stronger in pass defense where they rank 4th in the ACC (208.5 yards per game allowed) than in rush defense, where they allow 181.0 yards on the ground per game, 13th in the ACC. So it might not be surprising to see UVA continue its efforts to establish the run game. The Yellow Jackets do have two of the ACC's top tacklers in senior linebackers Ayinde Eley, who leads the conference with 10.8 tackles per game (and also has 3.5 sacks) and Charlie Thomas, who is 6th in the ACC at 8.7 tackles per game.
The real hope for the Cavaliers, though, is that the bye week allowed Tony Elliott, Des Kitchings, Brennan Armstrong, and the Virginia receivers to remedy the afflictions of this once-great UVA passing attack. Keytaon Thompson is the only receiver to not experience a significant decline in production this season, leading the team with 41 catches for 449 yards, although he has yet to record a receiving touchdown. Dontayvion Wicks finally hauled in a long receiving touchdown on a deep ball from Armstrong against Louisville, but drops continue to be an issue for the 2021 First-Team All-ACC selection. Lavel Davis Jr. ranks among the nation's best in yards per catch, but he has only 14 receptions on the season. And UVA has also sorely missed Billy Kemp IV, who has missed significant time with a variety of ailments, most recently an ankle injury suffered early in the game at Duke. The fifth-year slot receiver is expected to be available at Georgia Tech, per this week's UVA football injury report.
With very tough opponents awaiting the Cavaliers in the back half of the schedule, this might be the last opportunity for them to get into a rhythm offensively before they face defenses that will gladly take advantage of UVA's offensive weaknesses. The second half of the season can be a fresh start for the Virginia offense, but it must start right away on Thursday night in Atlanta.
Prediction
The sentiment around the Cavaliers this week is that all six games remaining on their schedule are winnable. The confidence is admirable and is an encouraging sign that the attitude of the team is in the right place despite the 2-4 start to the season. I've picked Virginia to win all six games so far this season, as I genuinely believed the Hoos could win if they put forth their best effort. The same is probably true for UVA in this game at Georgia Tech and it's entirely possible this is the week Virginia pulls it all together to secure the first ACC win of the Tony Elliott era. However, I've predicted Virginia to win six times and four times I have been wrong, including in each of the last three games. Until the Cavaliers show something on the field, I'll be going with the trends that show UVA going downhill fast and Georgia Tech on the rise with all of the momentum. I hope I'm wrong again.
Score Prediction: Virginia 17, Georgia Tech 20
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